Architecting the Peace: A Digital Marshall Plan
History is at a critical turning point, a hinge moment between the past and the future. The superpowers are at war and innocent civilians are being pummelled by military action. This is happening in Ukraine, but also in other locations around the world. Wars are in motion everywhere. How do we win both the war and the peace? That’s the question General George C. Marshall asked himself at the end of WWII. His solution was called The Marshall Plan. It produced the Europe we know today and earned him The Nobel Peace Prize.
Just as at that time in history, there are broad choices at this crossroads: revenge and reparations for Russia or forgiveness and absolution. It is almost unimaginable today to comprehend how world leaders were able to see past their deeply warranted anger regarding Germany’s terrible atrocities in WWII to envisage a future where Germany would become a powerful contributor to the family of nations. But, they did because George Marshall explained that they must. As a result, they gave Germany, and all of Europe, the cash needed to reconstruct their cities, their infrastructure, and their economy - even Germany’s. The results were recently proven again when Germany took a stand against Russia after decades of dithering. President Putin said, on February 24th, 2022, that any nation which helped Ukraine would face “consequences that they have never seen in their history”. This had real meaning given Russia’s formidable arsenal of nuclear, biological and chemical Weapons of Mass Destruction. This reality forced Germany to make an existential choice. Germany rallied and aligned itself with Western values and Western institutions thanks to the fact that our leaders decades ago had the foresight to help Germany recover from the war via The Marshall Plan.
For those who need reminding, The Marshall Plan, which was the nickname for the Economic Recovery Program, consisted of capital and loans to help rebuild Europe and Germany and repair everything Germany had destroyed, and restore Germany’s economy as well. It yielded fantastic results. Germany is one of the largest economies in the world and the EU is nearly the same size as the US economy. The beauty of European sites was restored and protected from further wars except when Russia has rolled tanks into neighboring nations, most recently in Ukraine.
On the 27th of February, 2022, in response to Putin’s threat, the German Chancellor announced a “historic” reversal of post-war pacifism and committed to reinvigorate defense spending, reduce German dependence on Russian energy supplies, prevent Russia from acquiring technology, sanctioning and expropriating the ill-gotten gains of Putin’s oligarch friends and much more. That same day, Putin escalated the threats by “warming” his nuclear weapons and transferring them from a deterrent posture to “a special mode of combat duty”. Having Germany as a true ally in the Ukrainian situation now has made the Marshall Plan worth every penny of the $15b spent on forgiving and absolving Germans and Germany of its actions in WWII.
Today there is warranted and unmitigated outrage and anger at Russia. Ukraine’s President Zelensky captured the raw human instinct of revenge saying, “We will not forgive. We will not forget. We will punish everyone who committed atrocities in this war” and “There will be no quiet place on this earth for you. Except for the grave.” The whole world feels his pain. But, revenge inevitably leads to reprisals and to reparations. If there is one thing we know from Gandhi, from Nelson Mandela, from Martin Luther King and from George C Marshall, architecting peace based on principles of compassion and forgiveness offers a better future can be had by architecting it based on anger and revenge.
Where will revenge really get us? We know from many wars in Europe that revenge mentality will lead to demands for compensation, whether financial or emotional or what we call “war reparations”. Europe’s history with war reparations is clear. The French lost the war of 1871 which led Prussia to impose the same war reparations on France that Napoleon had imposed on Prussia in 1807 (people driven by revenge have really long memories). The pain of these reparations lead both France and Germany into WWI. France then imposed even more massive war reparations on Germany in the aftermath of WWI. The reparations imposed on Germany, which were embedded in The Treaty of Versailles, were so great that John Maynard Keynes predicted that Germany would default on everything and that it would all end in tears. He was right. It is worth re-reading his book The Economic Consequences of The Peace now.
Germany repeatedly defaulted and ultimately concluded it would be smarter to go back to war to fight for a better settlement than to have the German economy permanently pinned down by war reparations payments that could never be met. WWII ensued. Germany lost and the West won. That’s when George Marshall rightly realized it is one thing to win the war and another thing to win the peace.
Now is the time to architect the peace. Take the war in Ukraine. It looks unlikely to go on for much longer given that Russia’s economy cannot support itself let alone this highly disorganized military effort. Even if Russia “wins” in a certain territory, they’ll face an insurgency from hell. Ukrainians have already shown that farm tractors and toy drones can beat tanks and convoys.
The jokes about the Russian military reveal a sorry state of affairs: “American Generals eat last. British generals eat separately. Russian troops “you guys get food?” Russia’s Generals are either dead or, like General Shoigyu, disappearing from a suspected heart attack which was apparently brought on by Putin bollocking him for the failed war effort. That’s not surprising now that Putin’s own people are revealing that they were never informed of the war plan to begin with. Putin’s people are turning on him. He may have replaced the top 1000 staff members in the Kremlin with his own people but who is going to remain loyal to someone who thinks it’s smart to poison the peace negotiators with chemical weapons (note a US official said: "The intelligence highly suggests this was environmental," adding: "E.g., not poisoning."The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, declined to elaborate.)
What must the new peace plan do?
1. Draw a line between Good Russians and Bad Russians. This is not an easy task. Much of Russia’s problems today stem from the fact that the country was taken over by someone who headed the feared FSB Intelligence Directorate and who seems to run the country as if it were a personal organized crime fiefdom. I see the tech community turning their backs on many gifted Russians, from coders to scientists to ballerinas, who should be recruited into the effort to make Russia a nation that can excel once this war is over. Then there are those whose prosecution of an unjust war will find themselves prosecuted by the Hague, by the Russian people and no doubt by vigilantes as well.
Remember that the US is still paying the price for not having drawn the line between good and bad Germans very well at the end of WWII. The US got caught between wanting to prosecute Germany’s best and brightest and wanting to procure them. The US sent some Nazis to Nuremberg for the war crimes trials and then to the gallows. But, they rescued and rehabilitated others via Operation Paperclip, which is now well documented (see Annie Jacobsen’s award-winning book on the subject). These men
were “chosen, rare minds whose continuing intellectual productivity we wish to use” the US said. Their skills included rocket science, physics, synthetic fuels, chemical and biological weapons, mind-altering drugs, psychological warfare, medicine, chemistry, applied biology (eugenics/genetics/biological warfare) and cryptology. They were chosen from the German’s Osenberg List which named those scientists and technologists who the Nazis (and the Americans it seems) considered, “irreplaceable”.
Every time Putin and his supporters mention the need to “De-Nazify” Ukraine one has to wonder if they are simply referring to Ukraine’s street gangs of racist tattooed skinheads? Or, are they referring to the fact that the US promoted many Nazi scientists to senior positions who materially helped the US achieve excellence in the production of all kinds of weapons and capabilities including nuclear, chemical, biological, and even psychological warfare?
Today in the tech sector, one hears of many firms firing their Russian and Ukrainian coders, retrieving the control over the IP and reassigning the tasks to coders from other nations. What will happen to Russia’s top cadre of experts across virtually every field, if the world closes the door to them? They may have little choice but to turn to their current captors, leadership with strange ideas about how to behave and organized crime.
The Ukrainian President, Zelensky has called on the world to boycott Russian hydrocarbons and instead develop green alternatives faster. He says Russia can only behave this badly because of the unlimited wealth hydrocarbons provide them. But, Norway has even better cash flow than Russia from oil and gas and they aren’t threatening anybody. The problem is not the riches but the purloining of these gains to private pockets (as recently evidenced by Anonymous). The problem is the ill-intent with which the money is deployed. If we don’t find a way to draw a line between Russia’s misguided leaders and the Russian people who are extremely capable, we’ll lose time. We need these best and brightest Russians building tomorrow’s economy instead of suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.
This means prosecuting those who have committed war crimes. This won’t be a job for The Hague and sovereigns alone. Mossad’s Nazi hunters are still chasing their WWII quarry. No doubt, Ukraine will have its own version of revenge seekers. But Ukraine will be safer in the future if we end up with a Russia that is part of the family of nations rather than an exile from it.
2. Introduce a mechanism for fostering trade and development in Europe that includes Russia. There is little money for another bailout in the aftermath of COVID and now the war in Ukraine. The only answer is a new technology – digital money that can be airdropped to anybody at any time and one that is connected to the greenest blockchain possible.
It’s simple. Airdrop cash into registered mobile phones. Encourage reconstruction, trade, and innovation with capital, credit, and barter mechanisms just like The Marshall Plan did. Nowadays it can be done with simple keystrokes. By the way, the timing happens to coincide with the SEC’s announcement that they are going to start auditing and investigating those who are creating and trading in carbon credits. That will inevitably include a whole bunch of cryptocurrencies. Kevin O’Leary from CNBC who spoke at the World Government Summit in Dubai this week. He pointed out that the SEC is going to begin auditing firms and crypto coins that claim to be engaging in carbon credit ESG. The mandatory disclosures will force firms, blockchains and coins to back up their claims with facts and numbers. This will probably allow the SEC to weigh in on cryptocurrencies, especially if they are found to be engaging in false and deceptive practices when it comes to environmental claims. Fine. Now is the time to create a clean crypto (not anonymous and not energy-consuming) that serves a multilateral purpose - reconstruction.
Perhaps the new multilateral coin could be like the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), meaning capital that can be accessed under certain circumstances. The project should not necessarily be sponsored by the old institutions that still protect the old economy and the old financial system, like the IMF and the World Bank. We need a new framework by which nations can collaborate and coordinate digital finance. Perhaps this will be a place where national digital coins form a marketplace? Estonia already achieved remarkable things with its concept of a digital citizen. It is easy to see Ukraine doing the same but putting digital citizenship on a green blockchain and adding a new coin. What should it be called? Tractor Coin? Or perhaps the Ukraine Coin? The “Go Fuc* Yourself” coin would have immediate brand recognition. If launched today, I’d expect Ukrainian tokens, coins and NFTs to raise sums of money that will make every other nation envious. Could tokens will be the new war bonds? Could such coins and tokens fund a Russia that has the freedom to choose leaders who are not fighting yesterday’s fights? Could such an approach quicken America’s ability to move beyond leaders who are also caught up in yesterday’s fights too? In a blockchain world, where every action and transaction can be recorded, a leader would never be able to divert funds for personal use or plan an invasion without anyone realizing it. That might be quite a good innovation not only in Russia!
The world should think about the time it will take to rebuild both Ukraine and Russia using traditional banking and finance versus using new technologies. A modern Digital Marshall Plan could work much faster, more cheaply, and with greater effectiveness than the old version, which still remains a masterpiece of policymaking. It would not have to be launched by the United States though. Today the UAE may have the most modern regulator of digital currencies and assets in the world. The world could rely on their lead. What is needed is a rule regime that the world can use to construct a new Marshall Plan. We can wait for the SEC, which will take time, or we can build new multinational rule regimes for the new technology that will allow reconstruction to start as soon as the guns of war stop firing.
Revenge will be best-served ice cold, with a splash of both Russian and Ukrainian vodkas, when all of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, Europe, and the US are warmly nestled together safely in the family of nations and growing well. They can argue and compete to see who has the best talent in the context of business, science, sport, or anyplace else that is not a battlefield. Reparations can come in the form of growth. Absolution still takes time. Russians will need to be forgiven and to forgive themselves for this mess. The Germans had to forgive themselves as much as the world had to forgive them. It’s taken the world since WWII to call upon Germany to serve as a military and strategic power again. But, the Marshall Plan restored European growth in just a few years.
A Digital Marshall Plan could make all this happen much faster today.
Thank you to the World Government Summit for inviting me to speak this week alongside H.E. Dr. @AnwarGargash, Diplomatic Advisor to President His Highness Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan @FredKempe, President & CEO of @AtlanticCouncil and @George_Friedman, Founder & Chairman, @GPFutures on the “New World Order” in Dubai.
Stay informed on new developments as they bubble up.
I stopped reading at the 'air dropping money via digital'. It is clear Pippa has aligned with the seditious and treasonous WEF members wanting to implement a global CBDC. These oligarchs are the real threat to the common man. One wonders if the WEF Cyber Polygon games last year helped in creating this Ukraine crisis and subsequent global supply chain breaks. Follow the money as always.
I used to highly value your articles but unfortunately they became ideological fantasies and propaganda, totally biased... by the way, I am not Russian, but I do not stand all of the mentioned and other unfairness that the West coalition is displaying against Russia.