A month ago, Turkey became an Arctic power. They signed the Svalbard Treaty (of 1920) which gives now 47 signatories the right to establish a “non-warlike” presence on a tiny Arctic island called Svalbard. A lot of nations are taking a special interest in this island, which is one reason I went up there last week to try and better understand why it has emerged as the front line of a worldwide war. It is a prime example of a hot war in a cold place. To remind, the current conflict with Russia did not originate in Ukraine but in Svalbard. On January 7th, 2022, somebody (widely assumed to be the Russians) cut the world’s fastest internet cable, which happens to be in Svalbard. It matters because it supports most of the world’s commercial and military satellites and the International Space Station, all of which connect to earth at Svalbard. The British called it an act of war at the time but the world’s media attention moved to Ukraine because “if it bleeds, it leads”. Meanwhile, Svalbard is attracting the attention of many nations beyond Turkey. For example, President Putin recently announced that Russia is about to become “a great maritime power” and will be expanding its presence globally. He spoke of “diversification and intensification of maritime activities in the Svalbard archipelago, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya and Wrangel Island”. China has been present on Svalbard since 2003. Canada’s Navy just returned to the Arctic in January. Now we see Turkey up there too.
So, why are all these nations in Svalbard? In short, this island is a kind of “international common land” and the Svalbard Treaty gives all these nations the right to be present there. The community is incredibly cosmopolitan, which means the food is very good. But It’s also an incredibly important strategic spot given its proximity to Russia, Europe, and the US, and because it is teeming with the resources the superpowers are now fighting for gas, oil, minerals, protein, and data. Svalbard is melting at a record pace, faster than any other spot in the Northern hemisphere, which means it’s easier and cheaper to extract these valuable assets. Russia views the Arctic as “the Mecca of resources”. China is interested in all these assets and the Dalian to Rotterdam route that cuts straight across the Artic and past Svalbard. The melt also makes it easier for the Russian and Chinese PLAN (Peoples Liberation Army Navy) to move their naval vessels and submarines around in the High North. The Tiger and the Bear are working together in the Arctic ever more closely. The same can be said for the American and British and NATO subs as well. Britain’s First Sea Lord, Admiral Sir Ben Key, recently said, “focusing solely on the Russian bear risks missing the tiger in the room”, meaning China. Notice that Russia and China are stepping up the pace of joint military exercises as well. The jockeying along the Polar Silk Road is increasingly about laying claims to physical assets. That’s what Turkey is doing too. India, by the way, has had an Arctic station on Svalbard since 2007.
Interestingly, a Russian Akula-Class sub surfaced in Svalbard while I was there. Compared to the rare sightings of polar bears, seeing a surfaced Russian sub in these waters is exceptional, but becoming more common. The island is seen as a choke point by Russia and their most important and most Northern military base, The Nagurskoye Airbase, is only 260km from Svalbard. As Russia and China align militarily, this Northern presence becomes an ever-greater strategic threat to the US and Canada, especially since both nations have hypersonic weapons. In August, Swedish and Norwegian fighter jets joined in military exercises with NATO B-52 bombers for the first time in Norwegian airspace, above the Arctic Circle.
All this is one reason that NATO refers to Svalbard as their “Achilles heel in the Arctic".
The value of the island has risen since 2020 when Norway began to open up the Arctic ice shelf around Svalbard for oil and gas exploration. Russia has also been re-examining samples from the Svalbard Archipelago that were taken between 1960 and 1990 on the assumption that there may be quite a lot of oil and gas up there that they may have a right to extract. That’s why Turkey is suddenly interested in the Artic too. They have also been busy collecting samples from “14 different projects at two dozen sampling points”. Turkey also resumed drilling near Cyprus in the Mediterranean in August. One can understand that Turkey needs to find new sources of revenue given that its inflation rate is officially running at 80%.
Turkey under the current leadership tends to be opportunistic. They play both sides: Ukraine and Russia, NATO, and the SCO (The Shanghai Cooperation Organization). Erdogan and Putin made a joint statement in early August in which Turkey agreed to pay for Russian gas with rubles. This is part of Putin’s “rubles for my friends and dollars for my enemies” energy pricing strategy. It is clearly designed to keep cash flowing while circumventing the West’s sanctions regime. Turkey did not sign up for sanctions and is now thought to be actively assisting Russia in evading them. They have been warned by the US Treasury on this, which makes the Turkey problem tricky. They are in NATO but friendly with Russia and increasingly friendly with China too. That makes them very unfriendly to the new NATO members, Sweden and Finland, which gives them an interest in NATO’s Northern flank in spite of their geography. Turkey initially opposed but then relented, on the accession of Sweden and Finland into NATO. Notice the surge in Turkish exports to Russia, and Turkish banks are also now adopting the Russian payments system.
Turkey is also looking for oil and gas assets in the Mediterranean. In spite of the heat there, a chill wind is bearing down on the Eastern Mediterranean because massive new gas fields have been found there. The gas fields there contain some 122.4t cubic feet of gas, which takes on new meaning in light of Europe’s impending Russian-induced energy crisis. Some estimate that these gas fields could supply as much as 20% of what Europe needs. Perhaps it is not surprising that Turkey has just resumed drilling in this area as of this month, in spite of the ongoing dispute over the ownership with Cyprus. The Cypriots own the gas fields but the Israelis have the licenses to develop them. Cyprus is in a tricky situation since it cannot defend these assets and because they have long been dependent on Russian tourism and the Russian private banking sector. Cyprus has long been Russia’s offshore banking center. It was where the oligarchs went to escape Putin’s reach. That put Cyprus in the cross hairs of Putin and NATO alike! The Cypriots are stripping oligarchs of their citizenship as fast as they can, but Maybe the only thing that keeps these parties from taking Cyprus on directly is the fact that the British have two sovereign military bases there. Like Svalbard, Cyprus too had a strange post-WWII settlement that gave the British two Sovereign bases there at Akrotiri and Dhekelia. So, Cyprus cannot kick them out. It is from this location that NATO manages the Eastern Mediterranean, East of the Suez, and The Middle East. Should there ever be a fight over the oil and gas assets in the Eastern Mediterranean, NATO would deal with it from Cyprus while Russia relies on their bases in Syria at Latakia and Tartus and those close by such as the Red Sea base in Sudan and perhaps from a base in Egypt and Libya where Russia has already secured loyalty, often in exchange for wheat.
So, Turkey is both up in Svalbard and down in Cyprus. It is working with Russia in its efforts to secure greater control over assets on the ground in both places. Russia too sees an energy/resource supply chain that runs through the Arctic and one that runs through the Eastern Mediterranean.
But, this is not only about extraction. It is about power projection. Turkey still dreams of being a great regional power again, as it was during the Ottoman Empire period. Turkey knows that all the nations in the Eastern Mediterranean are jockeying for access to and control over the gas fields to the south - Egypt, Greece, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Italy, and Libya. It’s a long list. They’ll need help. They clearly think Russia will help more than NATO will if it comes to a fight. So, best to align with Russia across the board, from the Artic to Africa. Notice that Turkey is also restoring diplomatic ties with Israel. This matters because Israeli firms control the production rights for much of the Cypriot gas fields. Then there is China. Turkey is aligning with China too. NATO has repeatedly declared that China is a serious and growing threat. But, China sees Turkey as a partner that will help in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and the Arctic as well. If Turkey can be persuaded to back away from their support of the Uighurs, that would be advantageous to Beijing as well.
The landscape in Svalbard is realpolitik. It would behoove investors and observers to pay closer attention to these seemingly unrelated and unimportant islands like Svalbard and Cyprus because whatever we may mean by geopolitics, this is where it’s unfolding as fast as the weather changes.
If you want to go have a look at Svalbard, I’d hurry up. The Governor will soon announce that cruise ships can only bring 500 people or fewer at a time. The whole island is shifting from coal to diesel. Svalbard was built on coal mining. Coal is so common that little pieces are lying around everywhere. It’s melting really fast and that’s making the polar bears wander in search of food which makes glacier camping up in Svalbard a pre-qualifier for the Darwin Awards. Better to stay in town or on a ship and wander out during the day. I’d recommend the Funken Lodge but there is something for everybody’s price points up there. Americans and tourists are less and less welcome in Russian towns like Barentsberg and Pyramiden. The locals hang out and gossip at Kroa and Stationen. Don’t miss seeing the Svalbard Seed Bank, which houses the greatest and safest collection of plant seeds in the world. It’s the backup in case there is the kind of Apocolypse that a nuclear exchange might bring about. Svalbard is getting very noisy and NASA says it is melting fast, so go soon.
Subscribe to stay informed on new developments as they bubble up.
Please contact me about public speaking events via LinkedIn or my website DrPippaMalmgren.com.
Interesting article. Seems like I heard of the cable cut on the BBC News and then it "disappeared" from the headlines and wasn't referenced again.
Interesting point of Cyprus. Back around 2000 I was working in Kuwait. Went to a dinner party one night where on of the guest was a middle ranking British Army Officer. After G&Ts dinner wine and a few malt whiskeys. I asked this officer where the really dangerous flashpoint were as far as he was concerned. I expected to be told the Kuwait Iraq border (Saddam was still there at the time with the "much vaunted" (Ha!) Iraqi Republican Guard). or perhaps the N/S Korean border. He looked me in the eye and said, no, as far as he was concerned it was Cyprus and the ever present threat of Turkish / Greek conflict that simmered over the island. Took me by surprise at the time.
Dr. Pippa, what probability do you attribute to the likelihood of Turkey splitting from NATO?
Erdogan continues to tap dance on the line of ally and neutral. Russian weapons & NATO weapons, Syrian militant & Ukraine arbiter, Greek antagonist, Andrei Karlov assassination... the list goes on. Throw a potential sovereign debt crisis and elections on the heap and the mind wanders.
Would love to hear your thoughts.