When is a coup d’etat a coup d’etat? Who is the patriot? Who is the traitor? The storm clouds of separatism are rumbling across America. The word “coup” is re-entering the mainstream.
Consider the situation in rural Oregon. The community is made up of conservative Republicans who farm the land. But the legislature of the state is increasingly dominated by the interests of the left-leaning urbane city dwellers. This is maddening the Right-leaning rural farmers in that state. The Atlantic reports on the tension, quoting an Eastern Oregonian who said this some six years ago. “Rural Oregonians in general and Eastern Oregonians, in particular, are growing increasingly dismayed by the manner in which Oregon’s Legislature and Oregon’s urban dwellers have marginalized their values, demonized their lifestyle, villainized their resource-based livelihoods, and classified them as second-class citizens at best.” The author, Grant Darrow, had an idea. Just “Move Oregon’s Border” which has now become a billboard slogan in a state where many want to be governed by the more conservative legislature in Idaho rather than by the more liberal legislature in Oregon. They want their own private Idaho. Eight counties have formally voted for this. This is a whole new kind of redistricting. Its a different kind of coup. Who is the traitor here? The legislature back in western Oregon or the old farmers of Eastern Oregon?
Note that this is not the only such story in America. A poll from The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics last October showed that there is a new national “a new secession movement” underway. The pollster writes, “Significant numbers of both Trump and Biden voters show a willingness to consider violating democratic tendencies and norms if needed to serve their priorities. Roughly 2 in 10 Trump and Biden voters strongly agree it would be better if a “President could take needed actions without being constrained by Congress or courts,” and roughly 4 in 10 (41%) of Biden and half (52%) of Trump voters at least somewhat agree that it’s time to split the country, favoring blue/red states seceding from the union.”
This question about “who is the traitor” is popping up in America in other forms too. During Donald Trump’s Presidency rumors abounded that the Generals were doing their best to prevent him from touching any red buttons or launching any wars. Was that a quiet military coup? Today we see several Generals writing an Op Ed in the Washington Post, declaring that the nation needs to ready itself for a different kind of a coup. General Paul D. Eaton, General Antonio M. Taguba and General Steven M. Anderson wrote a piece The Post piece is entitled “3 Retired Generals: The Military Must Prepare Now for a 2024 Insurrection”. The hint is that the January 6th events, when there was an attempt to take control of the US Capitol Building, was effectively a dry run. The Generals suggest that there are already signs that Trump is actively turfing out officials at the state level who are not full supporters of his and replacing them with hard-core Trumpers. They draw our attention to Brig. Gen. Thomas Mancino, the commander of the Oklahoma National Guard. He refused to implement President Biden’s order to vaccinate all the National Guard members. That alone would not be news. Many American public sector workers are ant-vaxxers. The issue, say the Generals is that General Mancino said that his commander in chief is the Republican governor of the state, not the president. In other words, we may be on the brink of a breakdown in the military chain of command.
Steve Bannon echoes this idea in a recent interview on @RealAmVoice. He implies that we are in a political “breakpoint”. He complains that many Republicans “don’t have the guts…” and he suggests that they are “a bunch of feckless, hapless, gutless individuals” because they are not full-blown insurrectionists. He and others in this separatist camp see the 2024 election a potential “landmark in American political history” that “rivals 1932, 1994 and 2021”. He refers to these as examples of “a breakpoint in American history”. He is suggesting that being an insurrectionist and being allegiant to Trump is patriotism and being allegiant to Washington is cowardice and effective participation in a coup by vested inside Washington establishment interests. Of course, Washington’s establishment views the insurrectionists as the coup. Barton Gellman pursued this line of thinking in his recent essay. “Trump’s Next Coup Has Already Begun: January 6 was practice. Donald Trump’s GOP is much better positioned to subvert the next election”. Gellman is is a staff writer at The Atlantic and also the author of Dark Mirror: Edward Snowden and the American Surveillance State and Angler: The Cheney Vice Presidency. He hints that we need to “assess Trump’s potential to overturn an election from outside the Oval Office”.
This simple question, “who is conducting a coup?” is becoming central to understanding American politics. Who is the Patriot and who is the Traitor? It will seem perfectly obvious to everyone although everyone will have conflicting answers. That’s the problem. This is why Charles Blow at the NYTs says “We’re Edging Closer to Civil War”. He writes, “The civil war I see is not the kind that would leave hundreds of thousands of young men dead in combat. That is not to say that we aren’t seeing spates of violence but rather that this new war will be fought in courts, statehouses and ballot boxes, rather than in the fields.”
He is right. The fight is in the courts. It may be that Tish James’s efforts (the NY State Attorney general who appears to be running for the Governorship of New York) to prosecute the former President will be enough to provoke a backlash. Notice that Trump is now suing Tish James and the panel investigating the January 6th events. All that brings news headlines that cause his supporters to rally behind their President. The prosecution is reinforcing the martyr. Is his coup starting in the press now? The press are beginning to speak of a coup themselves….but, can the press stop it with such tactics?
What does this mean for the American economy? For the world economy? If the red states decide not to report to Washington anymore, we’ll have a full-blown Constitutional Crisis. If the red states decide to report to a person who has not been properly elected to The White House, then that’s a full-blown Constitutional crisis. At least 75m Americans seem to think that this has already happened. Like Trump, they too call the 2021 election, “The Real Big Lie”. That’s exactly why the Constitutional Crisis on this issue has already begun. Markets seemingly won’t pay much attention to any of this until later in the game. That’s when we’ll see markets shift. If we end up with a President that most people feel has been fairly chosen, all this will slide into history and the markets will pop higher, free from the weight of these concerns. But, if we end up with a President who most feel has not been fairly chosen. We’ll slide into a market-shaking moment in American history. At that point, the market will launch its own coup.
In the meantime, I’m keeping a close eye on Trump’s DWAC SPAC. Follow the money. That’s an early indicator of which way this situation is going to go.
Subscribe to stay informed on new developments as they bubble up.
Coup d'Etat?
We Are In a New Civil War … About What Exactly? "The transcendent issue of this time — no matter the specific raw material of any given news cycle — is the belief that one half of the country suspects the other half is contemptuous of them, and responds with contempt in turn." We Are In a New Civil War … About What Exactly? https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/06/new-civil-war-about-what-exactly-526603
You are wrong about the National Guard and who is its commander-in-chief. The National Guard in a state reports to the Governor of that state, who is the commander-in-chief of the state's National Guard, until such time as the President activates the state's National Guard by ordering it into active federal service. See generally https://www.nationalguard.mil/About-the-Guard/Army-National-Guard/Resources/News/ARNG-Media/FileId/137011/. Since President Biden has not done that here, the state National Guard units remain under the control of their respective governors.