I’m on a transatlantic flight. The news about Russia is flying into my phone. So, I thought I’d download a few thoughts since I’ve been trying to help people understand that the war is not just in Ukraine. From NATO’s perspective, Putin has been waging war against the US and NATO in space by creating massive debris fields to deny the West access to orbits, by cutting a wide range of critical subsea internet cables, by trying to assassinate Americans on American soil, by putting nuclear weapons into the heart of Europe not only in Belarus but on subs in The Arctic and Baltic, by attempting to deploy them in efforts that thankfully failed but which led the US to offer direct nuclear talks. Everyone has been suffering. Ukrainians. Russians. All those who have had to ramp up military preparedness. The places and people Wagner Group controls across Africa and the Middle East. Everybody, even China was hitting its limits with Putin on this. Anders Aslund, who is always insightful, just wrote this interesting piece, “Is China preparing for a post-Putin Russia?”
Wagner was Putin’s private army till its leader, Prigozhin, got the idea that he could oust his boss and emerge as the new leader. But, I think something else is in play. Wagner’s efforts to stage a coup would have been visible for weeks and from miles and miles away.
Could it be that Prigozhin’s ego was exactly what Putin’s other opponents counted on? Let’s understand the real internal fight in Russia. It’s been between the Intelligence community, which aligned with organized crime (Wagner), and the military. It was FSB/Wagner versus Gerasimov. The Russian military did not want war or to execute the nuclear strikes Putin and Prigozhin wanted. After all, the Russian military is smart, proud, and well aware of how ill-equipped they were to fight the Ukrainians or anybody else. They also never got any benefit from Putin being in charge. So, when Russia’s highly respected Valery Gerasimov suddenly disappeared from the news and then reappeared as the Commander in Ukraine, I began to wonder whether he had plans of his own for Russia’s future. I wonder whether the fight between Putin and Prigozhin is a blessing for Gerasimov and The Russian military?As I said ages ago in a previous column, the war in Ukraine might end with a military coup in Moscow, and the West would be delighted because the steady, respected Gerasimov sure beats Prigozhin, who would have been even more aggressive and unpredictable than Putin has been.
Then there was the strange case of the high-level defector who had been one of Putin’s personal security detail. He got his whole family out during an official visit to Kazakhstan. Then he started singing to the West about how Putin was surrounded by “yes men” who live in terror of being shot or defenestrated. His insights were invaluable. They were facilitated by none other than Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Putin’s main critic. Radio Free Europe wrote,
“Gleb Karakulov, was a captain in the Federal Protection Service (FSO) at the time of his defection in October. He told the Dossier Center group that he was able to defect on October 14 after a business trip to Kazakhstan on which his wife and daughter accompanied him. On the last day of the trip, the trio flew to Istanbul with no intention of ever returning to Russia. The Dossier Center, which is funded by Russian opposition figure and Putin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, shared more than 10 hours of recordings and transcripts of several interviews it had conducted with Karakulov since his defection with media outlets and for the first time published details on April 4 revealing his comments. “Our president has become a war criminal,” he said. “It’s time to end this war and stop being silent.”
Karakulov said Putin was in a bubble and had no idea what was going on in reality because no one dared tell him the truth. Then a few days ago, The Moscow Times wrote this headline: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan to Share Data with Moscow on Anti-War Russians, Conscripts. The report read, “Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia will share their citizen’s personal data with each other for law enforcement purposes, the press service of Kyrgyzstan's presidential office announced Wednesday.”
So I was reminded. How did that fellow and his family escape? Could the Russian Military have helped him or even asked him to open a dialogue with the West? Would such a person be able to establish back channels so that NATO and the Russian military could communicate enough to stop a madman from unleashing an unnecessary conflagration or nuclear event? It would not be the first time that the Russian Military has taken steps to avoid following an order to launch a nuclear strike. Just three days ago, President Biden said, “When I said I worry about Putin using tactical nuclear weapons”….“It’s real.”
It happens that I was flying all over Europe last week and was annoyed to find that many of my flights were heavily delayed or canceled. Some had “engine problems” that forced us to wait but then got fixed. And so I noticed that “Allied air forces began the largest deployment exercise in NATO’s history on Monday (12 June 2023). Twenty-five nations are taking part in the two-week long “Air Defender” exercise, with around 10,000 personnel and 250 aircraft.” Hmnnn. Airline staff confirmed that many flights were delayed because of NATO planes taking up airspace. I was tempted to write about this but worried that I’d sound like a paranoid conspiracy theorist.
Now, in retrospect, I can see why it all made sense. I mean, maybe it’s a total coincidence. But, if Wagner was planning a coup, I might want to move a whole lot of strategic assets into place in case Putin went crazy mad about such a coup and decided to try and use the newly repositioned nuclear weapons. I might also rather welcome having Prigozhin do the dirty work. History would then show that the military didn’t turn on their leader. They will have saved the nation from a paramilitary coup. The Russian military can be heroes for stopping a coup and bringing the war in Ukraine to an end. Nice.
One headline read, “Wagner boss says his mercenaries ready to go 'all the way' after Moscow accuses him of mutiny.” Maybe Gerasimov’s people want him to go all the way to Moscow, where he will be met by the Russian military, who are eagerly awaiting his arrival. Prigozhin bragged of making it from Ukraine into the Russian city of Rostov with “no resistance.” But, perhaps this is no accident. Russians are very, very good at playing complex chess games. Gerasimov is a master.
Remember that this internecine warfare most recently involved airstrikes against Wagner bases, where some 2,000 of Prigozhin’s fighters were killed. He blames Gerasimov and Shoigu, Putin’s close ally and Defence Minister, asserting that they jointly attacked him and his people. He had long complained that the Russian military was not giving front-line fighters enough material or support. Eventually, The Wagner Group ended up being the front line in Ukraine. I can imagine Gerasimov saying “you want to be in charge? Sure, be my guest,” and allowing Wagner’s people to be decimated on the front line. It’s one way to get rid of that lot. It’s easier than trying to imprison them or convert them to the Russian establishment. Better to put them in the meatgrinder of the warzone and blame the Ukrainians. I spent a whole year studying Machiavelli with the Jesuits, and I guess it’s showing.
Were there preparations for this? Again, in retrospect, it seems very interesting that the entire internet across Russia went down in April. See: Huge swathes of Vladimir Putin’s Russia see internet cut off in mystery outage. Unprecedented massive web problems hit large regions across Siberia and the Russian Far East, and spanned many of Vladimir Putin’s 11 zones. It seems to be down again.
Also, all of a sudden, China started changing its tune too. A few days ago, China announced its intention to “restrict Russian bank clients’ transactions involving banks located in the EU, the United States, Switzerland, and the UK.” “The Bank of China has started to terminate Russian transactions in Chinese yuan, US dollars, Hong Kong dollars, and euros through its correspondent accounts.” I wonder whether part of the deal is that China is going to get a chunk of Russia? I have long argued that everything East of the Urals is really in China’s control already, anyway. But a more formal recognition of that would perhaps allow a different line of negotiation over Taiwan. It would be a big enough prize to buy some time from Beijing.
Notice how the stans have aligned more closely with the US and NATO lately. They don’t want to be controlled by either Beijing or Moscow. Isn’t it interesting that the National Security Advisor, Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, and his Deputy, Alexander Shevtsov, are both in Almaty in Kazakhstan today (conveniently out of the country for these historic events)? TASS quoted Shevtsov saying, “The United States and their allies are trying to support nationalist sentiment, spreading lies, manipulating public opinion, including through the internet and social networks.” Also, two days ago, Kazakhstan – the longtime host of Syrian peace talks since 2017, talks that involve Russia, Turkey, and Iran “unexpectedly proposed ending the process.” They also just renamed a town near Astana, the capital “after Kenesary Khan, who led the largest uprising against Russia's colonial troops in Kazakhstan in the 19th century before he was killed in 1847. The decision to change the name of the town of Derzhavinsk, which is derived from the Russian word "derzhava," meaning a power state or empire, to Kenesary was made at a town hall gathering of residents on June 20”. Huh.
Two days ago, Michael Rossi, a professor at Rutgers University in the United States, did an interview with The Astana Times, saying, “The days of seeing Central Asia as a collection of obscure ‘-stan’ countries with little knowledge beyond stereotypes is coming to an end. People who travel to the region and spend time in Astana, Almaty, Tashkent, Samarkand, or Bishkek, are surprised to find cities that are similar to what one can find in Europe” and “with the relocation of Kazakhstan’s capital, the renamed city of Astana underwent enormous building projects to be transformed into a modern 21st-century city. Without the history that Almaty has, Kazakhstan’s new capital basically benefits as tabula rasa [a clean slate in Latin] that can adopt an image like that of Singapore or Dubai.” That sure sounds like Russia is out and the US is in.
Also, two days ago The Moscow Times shockingly wrote, “For many Russians, their country’s war against neighboring Ukraine is no longer a distant conflict that has no impact on their lives. Drones loaded with explosives have darkened the skies of not only border regions, but Moscow, too, while cross-border incursions by armed groups are now a regular occurrence in the Belgorod region. All the while, Vladimir Putin continues to pretend that nothing major is happening. The president intends to fight this war to the bitter end, but in order to avoid ever appearing to have lost, he cannot clearly articulate its ultimate goals.
Amid this deafening silence, anyone who recognizes the new reality looks preferable. As the figures responsible for dealing with the aftermath of attacks and for trying to reassure the residents of their regions, Russia’s regional governors have found themselves in the spotlight, and may well be able to boost their popularity through effective crisis management.” Is the Moscow Times hinting that Russia is about to break up into regions led by Governors and that they are ok with this?
It’s far too early to tell what’s really going on. All eyes are on Russia now. But rather than thinking of this as a simple internal argument, it may be useful to think of this as a way the superpowers solve the larger problems Putin was creating for everybody well outside of Ukraine. Ukraine will be a beneficiary of all this, no doubt, but the invisible war beyond Ukraine may now subside too.
As I finish writing this, I see a great line in a news story. It reads, “Prigozhin said that his call to action against the Russian military was not a mutiny but a “march for justice.” It seems a long way from his previous “we will destroy everything” remarks. That should hold up well in the FSB court process that is already charging him for “calling for an armed mutiny.” The key question remains, where is Mr Putin? It could be that Gerasimov loses this fight. Stories are circulating that the military refused his orders to attack Wagner by air. But, if he wins, I am betting on a serious peace dividend and a Russia that is brought back into the family of nations at least until Gerasimov gets comfortable. Don’t forget that the Gerasimov Doctrine holds that anything goes. He is not to be underestimated. If Putin emerges still standing, we’ll have a problem Houston. Prigozhin is in trouble either way. China will figure out how to align with the winner, whoever that is. There’s going to be a run on popcorn, that’s for sure.
All I know is that all of a sudden, history is unfolding before our eyes. I’ve just tried to outline a scenario that perhaps few had considered.
I am not putting a paywall on this because the events are historic and everybody needs to think through various scenarios right now. But, I appreciate your support. I won’t need to travel so much if more of you support my written work here for a pretty small fee.
Please get in touch with me about public speaking events via LinkedIn or my website DrPippaMalmgren.com.
Superb summary of what appears to be a complex, fluid and volatile state of affairs in Russia. You remain my go-to source of perspective on the unfolding geo-political drama. Who needs news channels when we have Pippa?
Wow is the only think I can say. Remarkable times for sure. Thanks for keeping us updated,