Hiroshima and Human Flourishing:

Yesterday’s Nuclear Threat and Today’s

The Peace Memorial at Hiroshima is a stark and moving reminder of human ingenuity. It’s not just that Oppenheimer and the Manhattan Project succeeded in splitting the atom in their effort to reunite humanity forcibly. The 16-kiloton atomic bomb that went off 2000 feet above the city at a point now known as the “hypocenter” was ironically called “Little Boy.” It killed 66,000 people by razing everything for a mile and a half to rubble in a flash. Its deathly powers carried on for decades, ultimately slowly killing some 350,000 more through the diseases it gave birth to, like cancers and newborn defects. Yet, the people of Hiroshima somehow managed to rebuild a thriving metropolis after this. It is now filled with charming, bright, neon-lit alleyways, bustling with young people choosing amongst the loudly shouting yakitori and Yakiniku hawkers. Louis Vuitton, Gucci, and the famed Mitsukoshi department store are around the corner. There is nothing to remind us of the terrible devastation here except the Peace Memorial and its elegant, eternal flame. An early preview of Oppenheimer showed here for good reason – Hiroshima is an example of the ultimate comeback, of the triumph of the human spirit over the terrible power of technology. Who won here? Oppenheimer or Hiroshima? Hiroshima (and Nagasaki) did.

I’ve just spent a week with some of the world’s smartest investors, brightest entrepreneurs, and most cutting-edge scientists on the other side of Japan. The world they are building promises true abundance, true longevity, and true problem-solving of our greatest challenges. Investors are shifting their attention to Japan now that the stock market has reliably swatted deflation and sustainably rallied the equity markets. Also, China is effectively closed to investment thanks to its local recession and global geopolitics. Japan is the new darling of the investment community and has the nervous energy of a rekindled old love affair.  During the week, The President of Russia said his nukes are primed and ready to launch. How can it be that the world is at the brink of a nuclear weapons disaster again while such truly historic innovation is in motion at the same time? Can we make good choices to tip the balance in one direction versus the other?

First, for those who doubt that nuclear weapons are primed and ready, here are some sobering facts. Russia is threatening to restart the reactors at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine as a threat to create a “nuclear time bomb” on the front line of a painfully active warzone.

But, that’s a passive approach compared to the threat of nuclear weapons. President Putin may be exaggerating, after all he has been in the midst of an (uncontested) Presidential election where strident language may be a vote winner. But, he is clear. He says, “We are ready to use weapons, including any weapons — including the weapons you mentioned — if it is a question of the existence of the Russian state or damage to our sovereignty and independence. “He also says that Russian nukes are now “more advanced” than US nukes. That’s probably true because Russia invested in nukes over the last twenty years in a way the US did not.  Of course, Russia’s sovereignty and independence are at risk from President Putin’s perspective. That’s the whole point of Russian activity in Ukraine. He believes that President Biden would like a deal, but not before, say, September. Biden wants the splash headlines to wash over into voter support at the polls in November. he knows that swing voters can be fickle as a fish with just as short memories. We can expect President Putin to ramp up the pain between now and then. This seems to include the possibility of an actual nuclear strike on Kyiv.

Only last week, the New York Times wrote, The Risk of a Nuclear Conflict is Rising and asked, “Is anybody paying attention?” The FT recently got a hold of “29 secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008 and 2014” all classified documents from Russia that outline Russia’s criteria for a nuclear launch here. The FT wrote, the documents “describe a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is lower than Russia has ever publicly admitted, according to experts who reviewed and verified the documents.” Jim Sciutto has a new book out called The Return of the Great Powers. In it, he confirms that the Biden team has been “preparing rigorously” for a potential nuclear strike on Ukraine since 2022. So, the threat is not new. The problem is the stakes are higher now. That’s because Ukraine is running out of manpower, money, friends, and arguments. The US Congress has been stalling and sending far less than Ukraine believes is needed. Russia is more determined than ever to ensure that it is not seen to be losing in Ukraine.

What can Japan teach us about the risk of nuclear conflict? A lot. Such events start with small, unnoticed events and end in catastrophe.

As I look North from Hokkaido and South from Hiroshima, I am acutely aware of the disputed island chains that top and tail Japan. The Southern Kuril Islands/Northern Territories to the North are disputed with Russia and the Ryūkyū Arc chain and the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Tiaoyutai Islands to the South is disputed with China. These locations are close reminders of the invisible war among the superpowers that extends far beyond Ukraine.

To the North, we see that President Putin pledged in late January to visit the disputed island chain, implying a degree of ownership or sovereignty over them. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev stopped by to see them in November 2010, as did Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in July 2021.

To the South, we see that in 2020, Japan renamed locations in Okinawa as part of the Senkaku Islands. Stars and Stripes reported, “We decided to change the Senkaku Islands’ address from ‘Aza Tonoshiro, Ishigaki City’ to ‘Tonoshiro Senkaku, Ishigaki City,’ instead.” Beijing responded by naming 50 underwater geological features around the islands, according to Japanese broadcaster NHK”. China now keeps a record number of vessels permanently patrolling these uninhabited islands.

In both locations, we see a rise in the number and caliber of submarines and naval vessels. Russia is increasingly testing nuclear-capable weapons here in the direction of Japan. China is paying close attention to Japan’s record military buildup, especially in the Southern islands. Japan is also upgrading airports for military use on other strategically important islands like Yonaguni island, which is just 110km from Taiwan. Nikkei reported, “At least 16 facilities are located in the Ryukyu Islands -- including Okinawa in southern Japan, and on the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku in the western part of the country”. Japan is also “aiming to “station anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles and hundreds of troops on Ishigaki island,” which is close to Yonaguni island. They are building a bomb shelter on the nearby Miyako Island in Okinawa Prefecture, which will get one of the biggest.

Of course, submarines are particularly useful for such open ocean island geographies. It seems both Japan and China are seeking to increase their sub-surface naval presence.  Nikkei quoted a senior Japanese military official saying, “It appears the Chinese military wants to eventually deploy Tang-class [Type 096] nuclear ballistic missile submarines equipped with the next-generation JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile to the Sea of Japan.”  Of course, speculation continues as to whether Japan will join AUKUS, the Australia, UK, and US submarine alliance that is already giving China indigestion. This might start with Japan participating in the tech development of the project. Japan is signaling that it is interested in this.

Will any of these submarines have nuclear capabilities? Russia – yes. China – yes. USA – yes.

Note that military positioning around this part of the world is well underway. The Taiwanese Defence Minister just announced that American Green Berets are now stationed as “permanent advisors” on both the Kinmen islands and Penghu islands,