I Spy a Deal

Spying is back with an intensity not seen since John le Carré’s days. The stress between the superpowers and the real possibility that one of them might deploy a nuclear weapon has shifted the landscape of geopolitics. Even the intelligence agencies themselves are having to change their structure and practices as a result. The Head of the CIA has just been elevated to a Cabinet role even though the Director of National Intelligence, the boss of the CIA, is already in the Cabinet. President Xi recently merged the Ministry of State Security and the Ministry of Public Security to create a new super organization called the Central Internal Affairs Commission [中央内务委员), which reports to President Xi directly, giving him extraordinary power over the CCP. In Russia, the attempt by Prigozhin to challenge President Putin (whether real or theatre) has further enhanced the power of the Siloviki (Russia’s intelligence community) and specifically of Sergei Naryshkin, the Head of the SVR, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service. The substructure of a thriller is being rearranged.

It may have a thrilling end. All this, as we shall see, is symptomatic of a deal that will bring Ukraine’s war to an end, or at least contain it, and remove the risk of an outright kinetic fight spills over into The Suwalki Gap and Taiwan. By threatening these third locations, China and Russia are forcing the US to the negotiating table. All are trying to navigate their way to a cessation of hostilities, not only in Ukraine but also more broadly. Of course, there are conditions.

China wants more than Taiwan. It is staking out claims in many other places. Chinese officials have now hinted that Okinawa and the Ryuku Islands historically belong to China. China is filling the budget gap in the finances of the Solomon Islands created by Australia’s unwillingness to fund them after they’d agreed to allow China to build a base there. Both President Macron of France and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken have been out touring the tiny islands of the South Pacific. Blinken was just in Tonga. Why would they be in such a remote place at this critical time? Because any deal amongst the superpowers has to include a divvying up or mutual recognition of global assets.

The recent damage to the Kerch Bridge and munitions depots in Crimea have shored up Russia’s resolve that any deal must leave Crimea intact as part of Russia. China and Russia want a freer hand in The Arctic. Both are increasing their presence there. Both