The build-up of troops and tension in Western Europe, which seemed unimaginable only weeks ago, is now obvious. The question is what’s the objective and what’s next? It seems very likely the objective is nothing to do with Ukraine. It’s a much wider goal of changing the strategic dialogue and getting the US and NATO to back away across the global map. This means not only in Europe but also Asia. Few are paying attention to related events in Asia. China and Russia have now publically announced their strategic alliance. They announced a “no limits” partnership which implies that Russia now backs China on Taiwan just as much as China backs Russia on Ukraine. The true focus of the alliance is simply to push the US out of all its physical positions whether in Europe or Asia. That means getting the US troops out of the Korean Peninsula. That means getting US forces away from the Kuril Islands which Russia controls. That means Russia will work with China to achieve strategic advantages in Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and in the Arctic.
So, is Ukraine going to result in war? The tinderbox is in place now. But, both Russia and China believe in Sun Tzu’s idea that “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.” Lord Dannatt, the former Chief of the British Defence Staff, apparently referenced this idea this morning on British radio. It could be that Putin already has what he wants, which is the ability to stop NATO from encroaching further. But, I think he wants much more than that. He wants to push the US out of its strongholds geographically globally. The widely held assumption in the West that all this posturing is a bluff seems too simple. It does not take the wider goals into consideration. Also, subduing a real threat and calling a bluff are very different things even if the outcome is the same. The outcome here is still at risk because things can move out of anyone’s control at any time.
The Ukrainian President keeps saying everything is fine. It’s rather like when Ronald Regan joked in front of a live mike in 1984. He said, “My fellow Americans, I am pleased to tell you today that I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.” Ukraine’s President Zelensky brought similar dark humor to bear when he said, “February 16th will be the day of the attack.” But what are the rules of engagement now? Admiral Juha Vauhkonen, the Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff of Finland said: The “gentlemen’s rules” followed during the Cold War have been partially abolished, and chemical weapons and assassinations…” One aspect of the “Gentleman’s Rules” is that the conflict will not be restricted to an agreed battlefield or location. This is also why Russia is starting to lean in from the Kuril Islands in the Pacific. A Russian Destroyer, The Marshal Shaposhnikov, apparently chased off a US Ohio Virginia-class submarine near the uninhabited volcanic island of Urup in the Sea of Okhotsk. The Russians demanded an explanation and the US Defence attached has been summoned to the Kremlin. Demarches have been issued.
Russia and Japan have long-disputed who owns these islands, but Russia has had control since 1956. Russia’s leadership would say the Americans have long leaned into Japan and the Korean Peninsula too. The point is we are seeing the early stages of a possible facing off between Russia and the US in Asia, far away from Ukraine. Norway is a similar story. In Norway we hear Tormod Heier, Lieutenant Colonel of the Norwegian Army and Professor at the Norwegian Defense Command and Staff College, say, “Russia reacts is to continue jamming, exercises, and re-arming the Norwegian-Russian border areas. Russia does not do this because it is afraid of Norway. Russia fears that Norway will be used as a springboard for American operations into Russia’s most important foreign policy instrument; nuclear forces located only 40 to 120 kilometers from the Norwegian border”.
Russia has been intensifying it’s “strategic partnership” with Cuba and threatening to place nuclear weapons and Russian troops there and Venezuala, Columbia and Nicaragua. At the end of January, the WSJ wrote, “Russia lacks the resources for a ground war in Latin America.” But, “Russia and China are waging hybrid warfare using high-end military intelligence systems and equipment in the hands of irregular actors, including private contractors and criminal groups. Russia supplies weapons and manpower, while China provides the more sophisticated military technology. It isn’t unlike the strategy employed to undermine the West in Ukraine and Syria.” In late January, Gulf News reported that “Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced, in front of the Russian parliament (Duma), that his country “has agreed with the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua to develop partnerships in a range of areas, including stepping up military collaboration.”
Another aspect of this global “remote pincer movement” is policy. The superpowers are increasingly uneasy because technology has improved capabilities so dramatically. Proximity is no longer the key to success. Weapons systems are faster, more precise and able to reach longer distances. It feels like this is a showdown between rival gangs. Russia’s efforts are not about Ukraine. As the American Ambassador to Moscow, John Sullivan said, "It's the equivalent of if you and I were having a discussion or a negotiation. If I put a gun on the table and say that I come in peace, that's threatening." What is it that Putin and, frankly, Xi, want from this process? Russia’s goal here is not the possession of an unpossessable Ukraine (Ukrainians won’t go down without an insurrection). They want everyone to put all their weapons on the table. This is a demand for mutual inspection of everything. That’s why this also isn’t only about a new form of the INF Treaty either (The 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty required the United States and the Soviet Union to eliminate and permanently forswear all of their nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 k). There have been no limits of weapons capabilities since the INF broke down and the US removed itself in 2019.
The superpowers are behaving like rival gangs who are showing off their weapons and at the same time begging that the others show all their weapons.
For example, the US is also playing “here’s what I’ve got in my pocket”. In late January the 6th Fleet sent a powerful message to Moscow simply by saying “here I am”. The Drive wrote, “the U.S. Navy’s Sixth Fleet has offered an unusual public disclosure of the location of USS Georgia (SSGN 729), one of four of the service’s converted Ohio class nuclear-powered guided-missile submarines, or SSGNs, (now capable of launching up to seven BGM-109 Tomahawk cruise missiles rather than the nuclear-armed Trident submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) fired by Ohio SSBNs) as it conducted a brief stop near the island of Cyprus. These rare disclosures tend to occur at times of heightened international tensions. With the situation in Ukraine quickly approaching an outright crisis, it’s likely that the Navy intended for this glimpse at Georgia to serve as a signal to both allies and Russia that the United States has a highly capable presence in the region that can reach out and strike over long distances with little risk to itself.”
On February 9th, it was reported that “Moscow has deployed Russian MiG-31K fighter armed with a Kinzhal hypersonic land-attack missile in the Baltic region. Kinzhal hypersonic missiles have touched down in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad for the first time amid the Ukraine crisis. Reports say that nearly four or five Kinzhal-armed MiG-31s may have landed in Kaliningrad.” Russia also just test-fired their new Zircon hypersonic missile from a submarine in The White Sea. The demand here is not so much “drop your weapons” as “look what I’ve got”.
All this posturing is really a demand. Show me your weapons”! Russia is showing us in the West what they have. They want the West to show theirs too. All their weapons. The US certainly has unnamed and unknown technologies. For example, in September 2021 Popular Mechanics wrote, “The U.S. Air Force has a top-secret space weapon and is preparing to show it to the world. For months, the service has been preparing to declassify the "black" weapon, but wants to get the timing right, according to a Breaking Defense exclusive. For that to occur, Air Force leadership and President Joe Biden must sign off first. Key details of the unnamed weapon system remain unknown at this time.” Breaking Defence described it as “The system in question long has been cloaked in the blackest of black secrecy veils — developed as a so-called Special Access Program known only to a very few, very senior US government leaders.”
Some weapons may be imaginary. There is a real possibility that the conspiracy theory inclinations of all parties has made all the superpowers very fearful of more than conventional weapons. Biological and chemical weapons are a possibility too. For example, Admiral Juha Vauhkonen, the Chief of Intelligence of the General Staff of Finland also said: “…It is possible that in the future we will also see some use of biological weapons against humans, crop production or domestic animals." The various recent Freedom of Information Act requests on COVID to the highly respected NIH and Wellcome Trust have revealed a dark story. The Head of the Wellcome Trust intimated that COVID was unlikely to be formed in nature and more likely to have been deliberately engineered. NIH seems to have funded the COVID research in Wuhan even if it was not their intention to weaponize any virus. These revelations have no doubt fuelled the fear that COVID was not from nature but manufactured will ill intent. By whom? For what purpose, nobody knows. Are the superpowers afraid of biological and chemical weapons? They are.
Will there be a war in Ukraine? What’s the definition of war? Is it only when troops start firing? Is it about psychological warfare? Is it about creating conditions where there is no need to fight? Yes, we are in a war. It is global in reach. But, the outcome of this war may be a world where the gangs better understand who has what and where they have it.
Gang warfare can then go back to the usual stuff. Ukraine will have served its purpose as a hostage in the negotiation. Russia and China will be better able to sleep at night. The US will continue to think it can beat anybody else under any circumstances and continue to be preoccupied with domestic issues. In that scenario, the markets go up.
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An update on Urup:
Russia claims they found a “sonar countermeasure device, which the U.S. Navy submarine had allegedly abandoned when it left the area” according to Newsweek. It was “reportedly found off the island of Urup in the Kuril Island chain. The news agency claimed that the U.S. submarine had fired the device after Russian forces used a weapon against the submarine.”
“Eric Pahon, spokesman at the office of the Secretary of Defense, told Newsweek in a statement on Wednesday: "As we said on Saturday, the Russian claims about an alleged naval interaction in the Pacific were untrue. These additional claims are nonsense and disinformation."
Urup and the Kuril look set to be in the news more.
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-captures-secret-u-s-military-equipment-report-1679687?amp=1
https://scheerpost.com/2022/04/09/former-nato-military-analyst-blows-the-whistle-on-wests-ukraine-invasion-narrative/#comments
Maybe the West simply let cocky Ukrainian government flexing their muscles for too long, at the expense of their own population. Thoughts ?