The Archipelagic Century: Kharg, Qeshm, Abu Musa, Mayyum, Socotra, The Oxagon, Sindalah, Tiran, Sanafir and Marassi
It is strange but true that global geopolitics these days hangs on islands: Iran’s Kharg Island, Diego Garcia, Greenland, Svalbard, the Bab-el-Mandeb islands in the Red Sea, Sweden’s Gotland, Denmark’s Bornholm. Then there is Taiwan, the Spratly’s, the disputed Kuriles. The balance of power in the Pacific rests on Hawaii, Guam and now Tinian. We should include almost islands like Crimea, the Kola Peninsula. We don’t think of these patches of land jutting out from the ocean as the geopolitical center of gravity, but they are. Islands on demand are now a thing. Geopolitics no longer hangs on the control of vast landmasses or even the open oceans, but on specific, high-leverage islands. These patches of land are central to the Geopolitical OS (Operating System) of global power. They are defining the future. Here is a review of some of the critical islands in the Middle East right now:
Kharg Island
Kharg Island is now in the spotlight because Kharg Island is the ultimate “single point of failure” for the Iranian regime. If the islands in the Strait of Hormuz are the weapons Iran uses to project power, Kharg is the vault that funds them. It contains a massive storage buffer of over 30 million barrels. To put it bluntly: whoever controls Kharg Island controls the financial oxygen of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Without the revenue flowing through those deep-water berths, the regime cannot fund its internal security apparatus or its regional proxies.US Marines are seemingly on the way. Iranian IGRC forces have been rushing in (Man) shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS) to the island and actively laying anti-personnel and anti-armor mines along the beaches and possible landing zones to repel the potential US Marine assault. Now they hear the American President scolding allies for failing to show up in time and urging them to “take” Iran’s oil and gas while they can.
The standoff over Kharg Island has evolved into the ultimate game of mutually assured economic destruction. We were looking at a scenario where both Washington and Tehran are actively threatening a literal “scorched earth” policy over a 5-mile-long, twenty-square-kilometer piece of coral. Iran has a massive coastline, but almost all of the water along the mainland Persian Gulf is entirely too shallow for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs)—the massive supertankers required for global export. Kharg Island, sitting about 20 miles offshore, is a geological anomaly surrounded by naturally deep water. Over the decades, Iran has routed massive subsea pipelines from its inland oilfields directly to this 5-mile strip of coral. Because of this depth, it is the only place where Iran can efficiently load its crude onto the world’s largest ships. The U.S. has explicitly stated that if Iran continues to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, the American military will drop all “decency” and completely wipe out the oil infrastructure on the island (TIME: Kharg Island in Sights). Seizing or destroying it isn’t about capturing territory; it is about permanently amputating the IRGC’s primary financial circulatory system. Iran’s doctrine dictates they will sabotage and destroy their own oil infrastructure rather than hand the leverage over to Washington.
Furthermore, their “scorched earth” strategy extends beyond the island: Iranian leadership has declared that if they lose Kharg, they will unleash relentless, unrestricted attacks on the vital energy infrastructure of neighboring Gulf countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia (The Cradle: Iran Mobilizes for Ground Assault). If Iran goes down, they plan to take the global energy economy and millions of civilians who need water (H20) with them. The fight is over control of the molecules that pass through these waters and these facilities. The hostage here is all of us. Iran’s bet is that we can’t survive without these molecules of oil, gas, petroleum byproducts, and drinking water. America’s bet is that this event is so important that it will quickly catalyze the necessary shift in global demand to American molecules and to a new era of energy from atoms.
Water
H20 is one molecule that matters more than oil and gas. Iran hit the first one in Kuwait. Millions of humans in the region entirely depend on desalination plants. Saudi’s Ras Al-Khair plant is the world’s largest hybrid water desalination plant. It supplies 1 million cubic meters of fresh water daily for 7m people. There is no backup. These are sitting duck targets. These desalination mega-complexes are massive, fragile, and impossible to fully shield from drone swarms (CSIS: Could Iran Disrupt Gulf Water Supplies?) Water is thus a vastly greater vulnerability than oil. Any hit to water processing plants would mean millions would face an existential thirst crisis within 72 hours. See here for a detailed analysis of this vulnerability. The irony of Iran’s maritime blockade is that water itself has been weaponized more than oil. If Iran makes good on its “scorched earth” threats, it wouldn’t just cause an energy crisis; it would trigger an existential thirst crisis and the need for fast mass evacuations (see vulnerability map here).
Then Iran started hitting desalination plants in Kuwait, which gets over 90% of its drinking water from desalination. This one plant is said to supply approximately 40% of Kuwait’s desalinated water needs. But, Iran accused the US, Israel and the UAE of having hit a desalination plant first, on Qeshm Island on March 8th. All deny it, but Iran is using at an excuse. The next day the Iranians hit a Kuwaiti desalination plant.
We know that Iran now has highly precise targeting. We know because, in the early hours of March 27, 2026, Iran launched a coordinated ballistic missile and drone strike against Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, America’s primary forward location in the region. The barrage resulted in 10 to 15 U.S. service members being injured and caused significant damage to multiple KC-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft. However, the primary target was a Boeing E-3G Sentry (serial number 81-0005), one of the U.S. Air Force’s premier Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) command planes, valued at roughly $300 to $500 million. They literally don’t make these anymore – not since 1992. We only had 17 of them. The precision of the hit was staggering. Images from the aftermath show that the strike surgically targeted the aircraft’s rear section, completely shredding the tail and obliterating the plane’s massive, rotating AN/APY-2 radar dome. Hitting an isolated aircraft in the dark with a ballistic missile or long-range drone requires exact, real-time coordinates. Because major U.S. commercial satellite providers (like Planet Labs) had begun delaying their imagery of the Middle East, military analysts note that Iran almost certainly received the high-resolution satellite imagery and targeting data necessary to pull this off directly. So, we have to assume that those desalination plants are in the crosshairs.
The IGRC’s Handala network just showed off its hacking skills by gaining access to the Telegram account and the private emails of the FBI's head. The allegations swirling around that Patel is a dual national. Nothing is confirmed. I’d recommend against downloading anything because it’s likely your computer or phone will turn into a brick, or worse, if you try. The question is whether Handala got access to the unredacted Epstein files or information about US officials who handled the Epstein case. There’s a question about whether Handala hacked Israeli servers. If the answer is yes to any of this, this will be a bombshell event in American politics. Apparently, Handala also released the emails, names, and locations of key Lockheed personnel in Israel. Handala has given an ultimatum for the named Lockheed staff to leave Israel within 48 hours. Lockheed denies that such a breach occurred. Finally, Handala has suggested they have proof that Epstein is alive and well in Israel.
Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb
All the focus is now on Kharg Island, but Kharg only ensures Iran can sell its own oil. However, holding the islands of Abu Musa and the Tunbs allows Iran to monitor key shipping lanes and extend its territorial waters over the primary exit route used by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. Analysts note that whoever controls these islands can control Persian Gulf shipping and potentially threaten up to 65% of the world’s energy supplies.
Both Iran and the UAE claim full sovereignty over these three islands. Iran took military control of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs on November 30, 1971, just days before the UAE officially declared independence and the British military withdrew from the region. The UAE inherited the territorial dispute because the Emirate of Sharjah claimed Abu Musa, and the Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah claimed the Tunbs. Iran justifies its hold by claiming that the islands have been part of the Persian Empire since the 6th century BCE and that it has never officially renounced its claim to them. The UAE disputes this, arguing that Arab Qasimi sheiks maintained control and administration of the islands throughout the 19th century and that Arab rule in the area was documented by the Portuguese as early as 1518.
Today, all the nations surrounding Iran are thus aligned in their determination to rid the region of this humanitarian threat, even if they now say they are pulling back from their alliance with the United States. The President’s gaffe regarding the future King of Saudi Arabia was serious. No doubt the Qataris are mad at the US for allowing the collateral damage to happen. The real fault, though, is with the Iranians. The tragedy here is that the Iranian people may miss this once-in-history chance to overthrow the mullahs who come from another culture and have a different ethos than the Iranians. If they do, then other islands will become important, namely: Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb. President Trump wants the UAE to take control of these. But, the UAE won’t touch these islands unless it is sure that Iran isn’t going to take aim at its desalination plants, energy infrastructure, hotels, and airport runways.
Qeshm
Qeshm Island is the largest island in the Gulf and serves as a frontline fortress. It is the heart of Iran’s “strategic architecture,” reportedly housing vast underground “missile cities” operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), packed with anti-ship weapons and fast-attack drone swarms. It is so vital that in early March 2026, the US targeted the island’s desalination plant to disrupt its operational capacity. Qeshm is the shield to Kharg Island, which is the prize.
Sirra, Socotra and Perim/Mayyum Islands
Sirra is the “key” to the Gulf of Aden. While it is geographically tiny, and technically a peninsula, Sirra Island is arguably the most strategic 10 acres in the Red Sea corridor. Sirra is a volcanic, rocky island sitting directly in front of the Old Port of Aden. For 1,000 years, whoever held the castle on Sirra held the city of Aden. It was the primary defense against the Portuguese, the Ottomans, and eventually the British in 1839. Because of its elevation and position, it offers an unobstructed 360-degree view of the shipping lanes approaching the Bab el-Mandeb. It’s called The Unsinkable Lookout for good reason. Sirra is the “Ground Zero” for the recent shift in Yemen. On January 7, 2026, Saudi-backed PLC (Presidential Leadership Council) forces successfully recaptured Aden from the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC). As of today, April 2, 2026, Sirra is occupied by the Homeland Shield Forces, a specialized unit affiliated with the Saudi-backed government.
By the way, Bab el-Mandeb, means “Gate of Tears”.
While the Persian Gulf islands (Abu Musa/Tunbs) are the “hard power” priority, the Aden-Socotra-Perim triangle is the “maritime infrastructure” priority. There is intense speculation in D.C. that the Trump administration is negotiating a “Maritime Management Agreement.” In this deal, the UAE would provide the funding and “Port Authority” expertise to revitalize Aden’s economy in exchange for long-term security leases on the surrounding islands, including Sirra and Perim.
Perim, also known as Mayyun, an island, sits smack in the center of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, right opposite Djibouti. That, of course, is where we find a gathering of the superpowers: the US, China and Russia are all in and around Djibouti. Whoever controls Mayyun physically overlooks the passage of roughly 10-12% of all global trade. It is the ultimate tollbooth for the maritime supply chain. The contest for Mayyun is not theoretical; it is actively violent right now. Just days ago, on April 2, 2026, Yemeni government forces stationed on Mayyun had to raise their combat readiness to the highest level after thwarting a sudden, unidentified airborne landing. A mysterious military transport aircraft attempted to touch down on the island’s airstrip but was intercepted and forced to withdraw by defending troops. Analysts suggest it was a highly organized attempt to quietly seize control of the installation, proving that the island remains a razor-edge flashpoint amid the escalating regional wars. See: Foiled Airborne Landing on Yemen’s Mayun Island Prompts Heightened Military Alert. There are now reports that the US intends to land troops there in an effort to preempt the Houthis who have now entered the conflict on the side of Iran.
Mayyun is the linchpin between Europe and Asia. It marks the spot where the Bab al-Mandeb Strait splits into two navigable channels. The Houthi’s are trying to damage and control it. Why? Because, ships currently avoiding the high-risk waters of Hormuz by loading at the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbu face a brutal geographic reality: that crude must still transit south through Bab el-Mandeb to reach Asian markets. Taking and securing Mayyun is rapidly becoming the only viable option the U.S. has to ensure this critical energy “Plan B” remains operational. But, spokesman Yahya Saree was exceptionally blunt on Thursday, warning that their “fingers are on the trigger.” Any foreign landing on Mayyun will be interpreted as a direct invasion, a flashpoint that would almost certainly trigger massive, asymmetric attacks against the coalition fleets escorting the tankers. Saree is the designated official to broadcast threats against the U.S., Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. When the Houthis declare “direct military intervention” or claim strikes on targets like Eilat or Tel Aviv, it is Saree reading the official military communiqués.
The island formally belongs to Yemen, but the civil war shattered that sovereignty. Over the last several years, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) recognized the island’s supreme value and systematically turned it into a military fortress. Satellite imagery revealed the UAE building a massive, 1.15-mile runway right across the rock, capable of handling heavy military transport planes and attack aircraft. While the UAE officially claims the base is operated by allied Yemeni government forces (specifically those under Tareq Saleh). Some argue that the UAE used the chaos of the Yemeni civil war to secure a permanent, strategic foothold over the strait, mirroring their strategy with Socotra Island (more below). It allows them to project power into the Red Sea and counter rivals like Qatar and Turkey.
The bottom line is that if the Houthis manage to close Bab al-Mandeb while Iran maintains the toll at Hormuz, the global economy would be extremely vulnerable to a logistical collapse.
Socotra
Socotra has been in the news quite a lot in recent years, though hardly anybody pays attention. Since 2018, the United Arab Emirates has treated Socotra as a de facto extension of its own territory. This isn’t just about soldiers; it’s about “Infrastructure Sovereignty.” The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) effectively controls the island’s administration. The UAE has built hospitals, schools, and a modern telecommunications network. They even provided Socotra residents with work permits for Abu Dhabi and conducted their own census. For years, the only reliable way to get to Socotra was via weekly chartered flights from Abu Dhabi, completely bypassing mainland Yemen’s customs and immigration. In January 2026, Saudi Arabia reportedly pressured the UAE to withdraw its formal military presence. When UAE troops pulled back under this pressure, commercial flights were abruptly canceled, leaving hundreds of international tourists stranded on the island for weeks.
Socotra is important for many reasons. From Socotra, you can easily monitor the entire Gulf of Aden, the Bab el-Mandeb, and the movements of the Iranian navy in the Indian Ocean. This is why the Trump team views Socotra as a critical node in its “Maritime Security Corridor.” By supporting a UAE/Saudi presence there, the U.S. ensures that the Houthis (and by extension, Iran) cannot use the archipelago as a drone-launching base against Red Sea shipping. There have been persistent (though officially denied) reports that the UAE and Israel are collaborating on a signals intelligence (SIGINT) base on the island’s eastern tip.
The Socotra archipelago is also a UNESCO World Heritage site, home to many rare species and some that are found nowhere else on Earth, like the Dragon’s Blood Tree. Local activists and the Yemeni government accuse the UAE of “environmental looting”—removing rare plants and stones to decorate palaces in the Emirates and building military infrastructure that destroys fragile coral reefs. The allegation is that the geopolitical “owners” are so focused on the military value of the rock that the 60,000 residents are facing a severe food and water crisis. The island is suffering from an unprecedented two-year drought
Socotra is said to have mystical qualities. Arab explorers, such as Ibn Battuta, wrote