The Cold War in Hot Places
The superpowers and regional superpowers continue to jockey for influence in various hot spots around the world, including Africa, Latin America, the South Pacific, and the Global South. We are witnessing a Cold War in Hot Places.
Attention remains devoted to the places that produce photo ops, namely Ukraine and, more recently, Gaza. But, there are other wars and initiatives in other places that are materially important to our understanding of what is happening in the world.
Africa is in play. Russia has just announced that the remnants of the Wagner Group are now formally reconfigured into Russia’s new Africa Corp. Some call it “old wine in new bottles,” but the name alone indicates a significant increase in the direct control over cash flows and diplomatic influence by Moscow over Africa. There is little doubt that Wagner’s operations have increased and become more professionally managed since the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin and Dmitry Utkin. In the past, Wagner was run as a network involving “the complex dynamics between Russia, its oligarchs, and its criminal networks and how they interact with African governments, businesses, and populations,” according to The Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime. This is more than rebranding. Today, the private military contractor network is becoming a more formal arm of Russian diplomacy and policy. President Putin has acquired a whole new method for expanding Russian influence across Africa and the Middle East. So far, “The Africa Corps consists of mercenaries and volunteers, and does not form part of the Russian Armed Forces.” But, it is clear that the Russian military now controls all the assets and operations that used to belong to Wagner. The Africa Corps has kept the Wagner Telegram channel called “Smile and Wave.” It is being subsumed under a broader umbrella organization called “The Africa Initiative,” which is run by a 39-year-old Uzbek named Viktor Lukovenko, who seems to be Prigozhin’s successor.
Through these revived mechanisms, RUSI says Russia is now offering African nations a “regime survival package' in exchange for resources,” which sounds a whole lot like professionalized extortion. The deal is simple – “guarantees of regime security and geopolitical protection in exchange for lucrative mining concessions.” The Head of the American Africa Command (AFRICOM), General Michael Langley, a Marine, just testified to the US, saying Russia’s plans for Africa are moving “at an accelerated pace” and “a number of countries are at the tipping point of actually being captured by the Russian Federation.” This is about power projection, which one could see becoming a keener focus since the Russia-Africa Summit last July. One can and should, he suggests, expect more coups across that continent. Another strategy is intensified barter. Russia offers wheat in exchange for influence. Burkina Faso recently thanked Russia for the “priceless gift” of wheat from Russia. Of course, that country has been ever more closely tied to Moscow since two Russian-backed coups in 2022. Russia is also giving grain to Mali, Eritrea, Zimbabwe, the Central African Republic and Somalia.
The Russians had been recruiting in North Africa, looking for people to fight on the front lines of the war with Ukraine. The Ukrainians are now fighting back by going to North Africa as well. The Wall Street Journal says that Ukrainians are now fighting Russians in Sudan. It’s a complicated story. Russia’s access to gold in Sudan has helped finance the war against Ukraine. But, Sudan’s leader actually backed Ukraine. Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan is Sudan’s military ruler. He, like many African leaders, has been at risk of a Russian-backed coup for some time. So, he supplied weapons and support to Ukraine. When Russian forces began to threaten his regime, he asked Ukraine to help him. Ukrainian commandos are now in Sudan fighting Russian-backed rebel forces there. The WSJ quotes Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the Head of HUR, Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, saying, “War is a risky