The Eagle, The Dragon and the Elephant Walk
Things are heating up in geopolitics, both in hot places like The Pacific and cold places like space and The Arctic. But, most of the press reports still have no overall narrative that explains the interconnectedness of the various events. Instead, Ukraine remains the central focus, and other critical stories show up as interesting snippets in the press, which most people will never see because their newsfeed algorithm will shunt them to the side. The gap between the unfolding conflict between the superpowers and the story the public sees is widening even further than before.
Being in Singapore this week, I noted the intensifying concerns amongst those in the region about the rising risk of conflict between the US, or its regional proxies, and China. The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue is about to begin this weekend, and pretty much everybody in Asia is extremely nervous about the US and China coming to blows. There are many small and large signs that trouble is brewing. On Tuesday, Xi Xinping said this at a meeting of the National Security Commission: “The complexity and difficulty of the national security issues we now face have increased significantly” and “We must adhere to bottom-line thinking and worst-case-scenario thinking, and get ready to undergo the major tests of high winds and rough waves, and even perilous, stormy seas.” The Chinese Defense Minister, Li Shangfu, initially refused to meet with the US Defense Secretary or engage in talks even when they are in the same spot at the Shanghai Dialogue this weekend. But, it seems they briefly exchanged a few words informally. The Secretary of Defense had said that failure to resume the bilateral talks risks incidents that “could very, very quickly spiral out of control.” At the Dialogue, he said, “Conflict in the Taiwan Strait would affect the global economy in ways we cannot imagine.” It is against that backdrop that we have to consider the many events in the region. The Chinese and Americans alike display all the marks of teenage gang members playing a game of chicken. It’s a reminder that war tends to be driven by mimetic responses. Politicians on both sides are heavily driven by domestic optics rather than by thoughtful positioning.
On May 26th, the US Indo-Pacific Command says a Chinese Shenyang J-16 Fighter Jet pilot performed a “risky intercept” when it “flew directly in front of and within 400 feet (122 meters) of the nose of the RC-135 Rivet Joint, forcing the U.S. aircraft to fly through its wake turbulence". See the video here. To be clear, the Rivet Joint is America’s most sophisticated spy plane. The Chinese are increasingly uneasy about America’s accelerating surveillance and various show-of-force events. More spy planes and satellites are bearing down on China than ever. China says this "close-in reconnaissance" is "seriously threatening China's sovereignty and security." Their view is that an American spy plane, an RC-135 Rivet Joint, “deliberately intruded” into China’s training area on May 26th. All this is the kind of taunting that will eventually result in a clash and crash, as we saw in 2001 over Hainan Island.
A few weeks earlier, the US military held the largest “Elephant Walk” display of military might on April 7th at the Sheppard Military base in Wichita County Texas. Texas is always a larger-than-life part of the world and kept to that tone as it displayed America’s airpower with some 80 aircraft with 4000 servicemen and women. The US side would say this is in response to China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to surround Taiwan and cut it off from the internet and to the flotilla that China’s Navy sent to circumnavigate Japan in mid-May. It was led by “the Type 055 guided missile destroyer Lhasa, one of the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s most powerful warships.” Many PLAN warships circled many parts of Japan, with the Lhasa in the lead. The PLAN Dongdia-class intelligence ship Kaiyangxing (796) circled Honshu Island. The PLAN CNS Guiyang (119) and CNS Qiqihar (121) were seen between Rebun Island and Hokkaido. They all sailed through the La Pérouse Strait off Sakhalin Island, which belongs to Russia. Note that the Russians recently seized four Danish tugboats in Sakhalin in an ongoing dispute, but one wonders whether this may be a sign that NATO is already involved in the Pacific. NATO is deepening ties in the Pacific and planning to open liaison offices with Japan, Australia, South Korea and New Zealand.
Japan is now “fortifying” and arming parts of its Southern island chains, including Amami Oshima. Remember that The Geospatial Information Authority of Japan recently did the first national survey in 35 years and suddenly “discovered” some 7000 new islands, which they now claim belong to Japan. Of these, 1,479 are in the South