The Geopolitics of Asia Pac, Australia and Japan (Part One)

While the world waits to see which way America is going to go in the US Presidential race, many consequential events are unfolding in Asia and across the Pacific. These will shape the future of the region and have consequences for America’s allies, especially Australia, Japan, and Taiwan. The superpowers are navigating toward a deal over Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East. There is a “Grand Bargain” forming amongst the superpowers over these contentious geographies that will have cascading effects on the Asia Pacific region. However, the winding down of the traditional territory-based competition amongst the superpowers does not mean the war's end. The purpose of a deal is to stop the drain on their economies and to make room to ramp up into an ever-fiercer competition for command and control of new technologies.  Instead of spending money on tanks to protect Ukraine or ships to protect Taiwan, the focus will be on building out AI, Quantum, supercomputing, biotech/genetics, nanotech, and the strategic domain of space. The cessation of traditional warring and hostilities is giving way to a vastly more consequential, even existential, fight for the control of the technological future. The new tanks are digital, neural, and directed by a person with a mouse, not a gun. The world has changed.

First, the deal. Ukraine is a hard enough deal to reach by itself. But, few seem to understand that Ukraine, Taiwan, and the situation in Gaza are now all connected. For some time now, China has indicated that it would hold President Putin back from using nuclear weapons. This allowed China to emerge as a peacemaker and to ask for something in exchange for their efforts. Both President Trump and Vice President Harris are more than hinting that the US doesn’t want a fight over Taiwan. That does not mean China gets Taiwan in a day. This means that all sides are open to a long-term deal. It might be a 100-year deal. That deal will require certain side agreements. One such understood agreement will be that Japan and Australia are sacrosanct to the US. One will be that China can expand into Siberia as it reaches for access to water, protein, forestry, minerals, and access to the Arctic without any US complaints. Even Russia will welcome China’s efforts to develop their long-neglected East. If a deal can be reached on Ukraine and a preparatory deal on Taiwan can be achieved, then China and Russia will stop supplying the Houthis and Hamas. The US and NATO will agree to stop doing the things that agitate Russia, like expanding NATO and encouraging revolutions in border states (which the US has now admitted to doing in Ukraine). 

Progress towards a deal on Ukraine keeps being interrupted even though all parties, including Ukraine, want a deal. The White House has been distracted and unwilling to announce any deal before October, fearing that voters won’t remember it if it’s announced too far before the US Presidential election. The Ukrainians and Russians want a deal. Both expect it to be an armistice. That means there won’t be a winner or a loser. There will be a demilitarized zone instead. Both Russia and Ukraine are now engaging in a land grab before the deal is announced. But, sadly, Ukraine’s push into Russia using American weapons is now causing Russia to reconsider its position. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov yesterday confirmed that Russia has “a clear intent” to change nuclear policy, implying that it will lower the threshold for using such weapons. In Russia’s view, this is the West’s fault. By providing sophisticated US weapons systems to Ukraine, the US and Europe have encouraged and facilitated Ukraine’s capacity to inflict pain on Russia at home. In response to this imminent change of nuclear doctrine, China’s Foreign Ministry immediately said, “China has repeatedly reiterated that nuclear weapons cannot be used or that a nuclear war cannot be fought.” Almost simultaneously, Reuters reported the US announced that it has “identified the probable deployment site in Russia of the 9M370 Burevestnik, a new nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile touted by President Vladimir Putin as "invincible." This missile is called the “Skyfall” by NATO because the nuclear-powered nuclear missile “has an almost unlimited range and can evade U.S. missile defenses.” Thomas Countryman, a former top State Department official with the Arms Control Association, calls it “a flying Chernobyl” Reuters also wrote, “The facility is 295 miles (475 km) north of Moscow” which seems to hint that Moscow itself might become a target if the US were to detect any effort to launch this weapon from this site. Obviously, the stakes are very high. President Putin keeps undertaking drills with tactical nukes and threatening to use them in spite of pressure from China. Meanwhile, word is that the Biden team approved a new approach to “Nuclear Employment Guidance” in March. According to the NYTs, it “seeks to prepare the United States for possible coordinated nuclear challenges from China, Russia, and North Korea. The document, updated every four years or so, is so highly classified that there are no electronic copies, only a small number of hard copies distributed to a few national security officials and Pentagon commanders.” The Hill calls it a “stunning reversal of policy.” A senior congressional source told the Financial Times the move away from “no first use” is not welcome. Preparations for a return to nuclear testing by the US are underway.  “The Allies are essentially, in unison, collectively panicking.” 

All parties would really rather go back to normal and end all this escalation. It’s expensive. It’s risky. It’s dangerous. It’s unpredictable. But, even if that’s where they want to go, all realize the fragility of the situation and must also prepare for the possibility of a superpower conflict. So, all allies are being roped into place. America is pulling Japan, Australia, and others like Singapore closer together. Russia is pulling