The Spy, The Chef, The Actor: Russian Theater

Here’s a different take on events in Russia. Could the whole “coup” have been a theatrical production? There is a school of thought that Putin, a long-time spy (Siloviki), and his former chef, Prigozhin, orchestrated this coup and the reversal. One ex-CIA analyst says it’s a classic false flag. But was it? Why did The Chef and his Wagner Group march into Rostov-on-Don, then nearly to Moscow, and then reverse? Did Prigozhin really “cut a deal” with The President of Belarus, Lukashenko, whose family had left Belarus at midnight for Bodrum on the day of the coup attempt making sure the transponders were off as they passed over Russia? One theory is that it was one way for Russia to exit its position in Ukraine while saving face. Another is that Wagner is now 100 miles closer to Ukraine than before. The Telegraph reports that the Russian FSB, the Silovoki, who are Putin’s power base, threatened the Wagner family members and that that was enough to assure that Prigozhin would head back south and leave Moscow alone. Another is that Putin, the spy, had given the order for Prigozhin’s assassination. In anticipation of this, the Chef, Prigozhin, effectively took the entire Russian Army hostage. Or did Putin and Lukashenko cook up a deal for the chef that means Putin has just effectively annexed Belarus and put his private army in charge there? Kremlinology has always been notoriously difficult, even for the most experienced Kremlin watchers. The joke is that the actor in Ukraine, President Zelensky, and his Ukrainian compatriots are so intrigued that there has been a run on popcorn. But, we have not seen the end of this play yet. We are all now sitting in the Proscenium Arch of history.

Another view is that Prigozhin correctly anticipates that Russia is now at risk of breaking up into smaller parts. The area he knows best is exactly where he was, in Rostov, where the crowd chanted his same. This notion gets a firestorm of reaction on social media. But, this is what happened when the Soviet Union fell. I have argued for some time that The Soviet Union was effectively appropriated by the Russian intelligence services and reconfigured. So the Soviet Union didn’t actually fall. It just fell into new management. That group is now being challenged, so the risk of a real breakup of what we now call Russia is much higher than before. If, for a moment, we accept that there is a risk, then it makes sense that Prigozhin wants to be King of a new country. Imagine if that new country has nukes. Understand that Voronezh has nukes in a factory known as “375 Facility “C.” What could someone like that do with even one nuclear weapon? Maybe he could not launch it, but the fissile material has value. Such a weapon has value, both for the purposes of negotiation and on the open market.

Remember that the CIA has been openly promoting “walk-ins,” meaning extending an open invitation to any Russians for amnesty and safe haven.  If anything happens to Prigozhin, the US may be even more flooded with requests to change sides. Russian military leaders used to have direct contact with their American counterparts. They know who they can trust.

Former CIA Director Gen David Petraeus suggests that The Chef “lost his nerve” and saved himself but lost control of The Wagner Group. He now needs to avoid being on high floors of tall buildings or risk the standard Putin exit, defenestration according to Petraeus, meaning The Chef is toast. I am not so sure.

The real issue for NATO and the G7 now has nothing to do with who is up or down here but rather with what is loose. Putin’s favorite props are nukes. If President Putin was mad before, he’s bound to be madder now. So far, we’ve been lucky or blessed that the Russian military has not executed the order for him. He can’t launch without the military.