Valkyries, Vallhala and Vectoring in on The Arctic

The negotiation that’s underway between the superpowers is complex and noisy. People want to believe that each issue can be handled on its own merits: Ukraine, Climate Change, Gaza, Space, Taiwan. But, this is the highest stake poker game of all time and everything is in play all at once. So, we must pay attention to the stories that the media will not be framing up for us because it doesn’t fit the accepted narrative. Also, there are many seemingly tangential stories are just too hard to tell because it means the journalists and the public alike have to start learning new subjects which apparently nobody is capable of or willing to do any more. But, we must go to the High North if we are to understand what’s truly in play. This is the land of Norse mythology which holds that the Valkyries gather here as wars begin to unfold. The God Odin sends these beautiful and divine female warrior spirits from the land of Asgard - usually winged with swan feathers and astride a horse on land or flying through the air – to assess the souls of the combatants. They decide which of the fallen warriors on a battlefield are worthy enough to be taken to Valhalla to be reunited with Odin. They may be beautiful, but they are also gruesome weavers of fate, using a warp-weighted loom made from the entrails of those fallen in battle, according to the Darraðarljóð, an ancient Nordic poem. Well, if you pay attention, you will see that the fates, along with warriors, diplomats, and superpower politicians, are all converging on and around the islands of the High North right now. This may determine all of our fates.

Warriors and diplomats are now focusing a good deal of attention on remote islands inside the Arctic Circle and in the High North: Svalbard, Greenland, Jan Mayen Land, The Faroes Islands, Iceland, and Franz Josef Land. Why? What is going on?

I have long argued that all the geopolitical risk in the Arctic centers on Svalbard for a few very specific reasons. It is the place where many satellites connect to Earth. It is home to the fastest internet cable on Earth for this reason. It is also nominally Norway but practically the citizens of the following nations can move there any time and come and go freely: The list as of 1 January 2021 of Svalbard Treaty signatories: Afghanistan, Albania, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, Czech Republic, Denmark, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Monaco, New Zealand, North Korea, Norway, People’s Republic of China, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, United States, and Venezuela.

All the signatories agree that Svalbard must remain de-militarized. However, NATO ships have been ever more present in the harbor there in recent years, especially after somebody started trying to break the satellite subsea cable link that global GPS depends upon. This little island is only about 400 nautical miles from Russia and not very far from Severomorsk, the center of the newly established Northern Fleet Joint Strategic Command. The US cannot overtly put military capability on Svalbard but there are no restrictions on Jan Mayen Land, a tiny island owned by Norway, which is halfway between Svalbard and Iceland. The US Air Force has been surveying it with an eye to building out a runway that can handle a C-130J Super Hercules aircraft. The 435th Contingency Response Squadron was openly assessing possible “runway surfaces, glideslope obstructions and firing capes" last November, according to an Air Force press release. The US Navy has apparently “spent millions refurbishing hangars at Naval Air Station Keflavik in Iceland to accommodate more US Navy P-8 Poseidon’s.” These are America’s much-feared submarine-hunting spy planes. The US military has been more and more overt about their presence in the Arctic, even using X to broadcast when they come and go. Last November, the US Navy publicized visits by surface ships and submarines to Norway, tweeting photos of the “nuclear-powered attack sub-USS Minnesota loading MK-48 torpedoes at Haakonsvern naval base in Bergen”. “On March 14,” Russia issued a formal statement that “expressed its concern over Norway’s growing militarization of the Svalbard archipelago.” It continued, “on the Norwegian side to abandon any activities that undermine the international legal basis of the archipelago’s status, contribute to the introduction of conflict potential in the territory of Svalbard and the adjacent maritime areas, and lead to an escalation of tensions in the region.” The Russians were crystal clear, “the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which provides for the exclusively peaceful development of the archipelago and prohibits the use of its territory for military purposes, the area is increasingly involved in Norway’s military and political planning with the participation of the US and NATO.”

Meanwhile, President Trump started leaning into the need for America to have a defense foothold in Greenland. He said he wanted to buy it back in 2019. But then he doubled down and suggested that the US would just annex it. He knows Greenlanders have only two real choices – work with the Americans or the Chinese. Based on that he assumed he might be welcomed with open arms. But, to his surprise, that isn’t happening. The Greenlanders and the Danish don’t seem to understand that dominance in space requires physical presence in the Arctic. This is why the US recently renamed the Thule Airbase the Pituffik Space Base. Greenland is about space access and about monitoring the other superpowers in the Arctic. Greenland is also, obviously, along with The Faroe Islands, another autonomous Danish possession, are critical to the effort to monitor and track Russian submarines. Trump is seen as a threat in the media, but the Danes, Greenlanders, and Faroese are all very aware that other superpowers are lurking around their shores and in their skies. Trump guesses that they hate him now, but they’ll love America rescuing them if things heat up with Russia, which seems to be where things are heading.

Not surprisingly, President Putin is pushing back. Russia is both strenuously objecting to the US/NATO presence in Svalbard and arguing that much of these Arctic spaces are Russian anyway. The International Institute for Strategic Studies produces an annual report called The Military Balance. In 2024, according to The Jamestown Foundation, they said that there are “1,100 U.S. troops deployed in Norway, including an artillery battalion with M109 self-propelled guns (155mm). The Norwegian Navy has four frigates and six submarines, six Skjold missile corvettes, six CB90N landing craft, four minesweepers, and two electronic intelligence ships. The Norwegian Air Force operates 40 F-35A fighters, five P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft, four C-130J-30 Hercules transport jets, 15 MFI-15 Safari trainers, as well as helicopters: 13 AW101, 10 Sea King Mk43B, 6 Bell 412HP, and 12 Bell 412S. Putin naturally dislikes all of that. Back in April, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia was attempting “to exert control over new spaces. It is modernizing its bases in the Arctic and building new ones.” In response, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, drily said, “We hear whining about Russia expanding its military activities in the Arctic. But everyone knows that it’s our territory, our land.”

Just as Trump renamed The Gulf of Mexico, The Gulf of America, the Russians want to Russify place names in The Arctic. The Arctic Ocean should be called The Russian Arctic Ocean. The archipelago of Franz Josef Land – should now be known as