Warlord Swap and the Peace Dividend: The New State and The Deep State
The Fall of the Berlin Wall brought about a valuable peace dividend because it reunified humanity. It converted communists into capitalists. It transferred defence spending into productive investment in commercial innovation. That transition may have been bumpy and uneven, especially in Russia. But, the global direction of travel was clear once that wall was breached. Stock markets went up. Economies grew. Hope and optimism flourished. Today, something just as consequential is unfolding again in front of our eyes. But, just as few predicted the fall of the Berlin Wall and the bankruptcy of the Soviet Union, few are ahead of this event curve, and fewer still are prepared for the probable outcomes. This is especially true because we are talking about the ending of religious, philosophical, and doctrinal schisms and events involving religious power.
But, what religion has to do with the world economy these days. The answer is everything. Our beliefs shape our economies and our geopolitics. A peace movement is rippling through the Christian and Islamic worlds and amongst the young worldwide – the young in America, the young in China, the young in the Middle East, including Israel, and amongst the young in Europe too. The “No More War” Movement is gaining momentum. It now has religious leaders advocating for peace and intermediating between nations that are at, or on the brink of war. President Trump is surprising everyone by making alliances with religious figures and foreign warlords while turning the sniper scopes onto America’s home-grown warlords. The knife fight is no longer in the Middle East. It’s in Washington.
The Berlin Wall moment was based on beliefs. It had religious and spiritual elements. In the West, that moment was seen as a triumph of the West’s religion, which is capitalism. It was seen as a triumph of personal freedom over the power of the collectivist state. Communism failed. In the East, it was seen as a moment where the failed collectivist approach to the management of the economy and the state was able to morph into a better-quality solution. Deng Xiaoping summed it up as "it doesn't matter if a cat is black or white, if it catches mice, it's a good cat" (不管黑猫白猫，能捉到老鼠就是好猫). In the East, in Russia and China, the view was that communism did not fail. It improved.
The world economy certainly took off after the Berlin Wall came down. It is set to take off again today once people realize that the end of various religious and philosophical schisms will have a similar impact. Nations are coming in from the cold. Iran has accepted the current offer and is aligning with Saudi, Qatar and the US by agreeing to put its nuclear program on the back burner and agreeing to nuclear inspections (real inspections). Iran is about to open up and join the world economy. Syria is also normalizing its relationship with Saudi Arabia and the West, and also eschewing the terrorists. I’ll be on a plane to Iran and Syria as soon as it’s practical because this kind of historic event happens only rarely. Turkey has already agreed to follow this path, too. It has little choice. If it wants to be a regional superpower, it has to keep up with Saudi and Iran. Qatar is already on side with the US as well, having effectively agreed to bail out Boeing (a very difficult undertaking given the mess it’s in) and to stop supporting terrorists going forward. This also means Qatar will become an aerospace innovation hub.
Something quite new is in play here. Trump is essentially gathering the former enemies and opponents of the US and recruiting them in his efforts to fight what he calls the American Deep State. In other words, he is appealing to everyone in the region and beyond, saying the main reason there are troubles in the region is not because of homegrown disputes and differences. It is because the American Deep State has interfered, intervened, and instigated these conflicts.
The story is increasingly awful. Who weaponized the common flu so that it would kill more humans and then lied to various Presidents and Congress about it? American officials in American government institutions. Who funded the terrorists across the Middle East? American officials in American government institutions. It’s a very difficult moment for Americans because it is so hard to believe that the people we have admired, supported, defended, worked for, and believed were actually up to no good. Of course, no doubt they thought they were doing the right thing. These people are quick to wrap themselves in the American flag and present their policies as if they are fully patriotic. But this begs the question: Why did these folks try to delete the emails (Covid, USAID payments to terrorist organizations, Institute of Peace)? Why did they lie to Congress under oath? Take the conflict between the former Head of the CIA, John Brennan, and the ODNI, Tulsi Gabbard. She’s just stripped the CIA of its