Wars Within Wars: Deep State/Counter State, 4th Estate, AI & SPQR (Part One)
We had been so very close to the end of WWIII. Presidents Xi, Putin and Zelensky had all agreed to a negotiated outcome on Ukraine. Xi was shepherding Hamas and Israel to an agreed ceasefire, which is still progressing. Now Zelensky has even offered terms for ceding territory to Russia.
The US elected Donald Trump, in large part because of his “no more forever wars” stance, in the first Red Wave victory in 40 years, which secured Republican control of the House, the Senate, and the Supreme Court. That was the particular moment—at the 11th hour on the 1000th day of the war in Ukraine - in an arguably a lame-duck moment, when the White House and the British Prime Minister decided to scupper the peace talk efforts.
Both the US and UK announced the ramping up of the war in Ukraine. The US did so by sending long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, something it had utterly refused to do so before, in part because only Americans have the skill and tools to launch them. The British joined in by sending in “dozens” of their $1m each Franco-British made Storm Shadow Missiles that can reach targets 155 miles away. Next thing you know, Ukraine (or NATO operatives there) launched these new long-range weapons and started shelling inside Russia. In response, on November 21st, President Putin launched an Oreshnik at Ukraine with six warheads on the MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle ) on the IRBM (intermediate-range ballistic missile). They warned the US before firing because an Oreshnik sure looks like a nuclear ICBM. It potentially has the power of a nuke or more. President Putin has said that these weapons have “destructive capabilities to that of a meteor.” These missiles are perfectly capable of carrying nukes and taking out targets across NATO and the US. That was the purpose of the dummy launch – to send a clear message to the US, Britain, and NATO.
In Russia’s view, the US and Britain have now directly entered the fight, and they are now justified targets for Russia hypersonic weapons and nukes. The target is no longer only Ukraine. It is the West. Putin spelled this out clearly back in September when he said, “This (Western long-range weapons in Ukrainian hands or launched from Ukrainian territory) would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict. It would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia”. Here’s the bottom line: we are now in the midst of a Cuban Missile Crisis, again. As Joe Rogan put it, “WTF?”
Senior intelligence community officials say, “Well, better late than never.” The Head of MI6 recently said, “In 37 years in the intelligence profession, I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state. And the impact on Europe, our shared European home, could hardly be more serious.” But this logic doesn’t work. They had lots of opportunities to do something about Russia in Ukraine before. Remember that we have been on the edge of a peace deal before, one which Boris Johnson opposed, telling Zelensky he “shouldn’t sign anything with them at all—and let’s just fight.” Now Prime Minister Keir Starmer is doing the same? Why?
What is the advantage of continuing the war if it’s unwinnable by Ukraine? The UN Secretary-General has said it is unwinnable and should result in a negotiated settlement. RAND says it is unwinnable. Many US military commanders have said the same. Yet, after a definitive defeat at the ballot box, somebody in the White House decides that now is the time to risk a nuclear/hypersonic confrontation by crossing a bunch of red lines and ramping up the war with Russia in Ukraine and China, too. It wasn’t the President because he’s having trouble thinking straight, as everyone can see. It wasn’t the Vice President who isn’t exactly an expert on geopolitics. So, who is making this decision? I believe it’s not the National Security Advisor or the Secretary of State. The situation is only explainable once we realize that there are wars within the war in Ukraine and wars beyond the war in Ukraine. The main “additional wars” are as follows: