In 1981 a Soviet S-363 “Whiskey-Class” submarine “accidentally” hit a rock and went aground on a Swedish archipelago about 6 miles from the largest Swedish naval base at Karlskrona. The Swedes only found out about it when Ingvar Svensson, a Swedish fisherman, spotted the 50-foot-long sub in a rocky outlet that the Russian crew had raised in the hopes of becoming unstuck. But now, the sub was aground and towering above sea level in plain sight. Technically, Sweden was a “nuclear-free country” at that time, but it soon became clear that the sub had nuclear material aboard, probably nuclear weapons, and to it’s payload of 18 torpedoes and 24 mines. As a result, the Swedes nicknamed it the “U-137,” which was a problem for the Russians, who should not have been patrolling there and who did not want the world to know they had nuclear weapons there. This incident launched a tense standoff for 11 days.
The fisherman apparently called the Swedish naval base and said,
“Hi, my name is Ingvar Svensson, I live on Sturkö. I just wanted to tell you that there is a submarine in Gåsefjärden, by Torumskär".
The Swedish navy thought it was a joke, but Swedish Naval Commander Karl Andersson decided to sail out any way to double-check this, only to find that there was indeed a Russian sub aground with a crew aboard. This led to a range of formal and not very diplomatic exchanges between Sweden and Russia. The Russians wanted help from the Russian Navy and claimed it had happened only because their instruments were off. They were meant to be somewhere off of Kaliningrad or Poland. The Swedes said they were not up for having any more Russian vessels entering their territorial waters and offered to help salvage the foundering sub themselves. The Russians refused. The Swedish military and press started to encircle the sub. The headlines read “Soviet Sub Beached in Sweden”. Moscow protested. Eventually, the Russians agreed to let the Swedes help the lost sub swim away. But, then came a huge surprise.
When the Swedes went to nudge the sub off the rocks, they found that it only had a “slight list”. In other words, maybe it hadn’t been stuck at all. Maybe it was all a ruse designed to show Sweden that Russia could get nuclear weapons into Sweden. The Swedish Prime Minister Thorbjörn Fäldin later said “In all probability, there is one or more nuclear charges onboard the submarine. In all probability, bordering on certainty, there is Uranium 238 on board. This is the worst violation of Swedish territory since World War II.” When the U-237 sailed away, they sent a message to the Swedes saying, “I thank you for the extended help. Happy journey.” The Swedish replied “See you later”.
From that time, Sweden became sharply focused on detecting Soviet submarine movements. They developed very sophisticated listening technology and NATO increasingly depended on their spotter reports. It later became clear that the Swedish sub-spotters had confused the sound of submarine propellers with the strangely similar sound made by schools of herrings when they fart. Yes, the Swedes thought they were constantly surrounded by aggressive Soviet nuclear subs when in fact they were surrounded by large schools of farting herrings. Apparently, this is how herrings communicate. Science Magazine writes, “It's a little boy's dream: talking through farting. But it may be a part of everyday life for herring. A new study finds that the fish make noise by squeezing air bubbles out of their backsides.” Do not miss the fabulous podcast on all this called “Red Herring” on Radiolab.
But, back to that “See you later” comment from the Swedish side made in 1981. It may be telling because the Swedes are on the lookout for Russian subs today, as are the Danes, the Norwegians, and, frankly, many countries. The concern is not that the Russians will lob a missile at them, though perhaps that should be. The concern is that a sub can be used to create an environmental disaster in an act of ecoterrorism. They’ve done this by accident before. In 1989 they lost a 400-foot-long nuclear submarine called Komsomolets in the Norwegian Sea. It also had nuclear weapons aboard in addition to the reactor. Apparently, “In 1992, a team of scientists investigated the wreck, taking radiation measurements. Though the measurements were high, they determined the ocean would sufficiently dilute any leaked radiation, and that attempting to raise the sub would be riskier than leaving it where it lay.”
So, what will Putin do now that Finland and Sweden are doing the opposite of what he wanted? Putin seems to have succeeded in scoring an “own goal here” by getting Finland and Sweden to abandon neutrality and shift into NATO and even pre-NATO accession arrangements with the UK. This will enrage Putin even further. He has already threatened them with nuclear weapons. See: Russia warns of nuclear weapons in Baltic if Sweden and Finland join Nato. Two days ago, Russia warned the two countries of a “military-technical” response. What does that mean? It means a “Whiskey on the Rocks” that creates an environmental problem.
But will any Russian military officer actually follow such orders now? Increasingly Russians object to Putin’s “non-war”, noting that legally a “Special Military Operation” does not require their compliance. Some are outright refusing to report for service on the grounds that this is not an officially declared war. Others are deliberately injuring themselves to get out of the war effort. Fewer are following the increasingly brutal orders. The Daily Beast reported a Russian soldier saying, “One “fu**** of a battalion commander” ordered all the men to toss grenades into the basements of local homes without checking who was inside first. “It’s good that they didn’t fucking toss the grenades because when the guys went in there were four little kids sitting there.””
My sense is that the powers that be are waiting for Putin to run out of steam. His own people are waiting for him to become too unwell to keep this up. Reports of his deterioration from supposed blood cancer, possibly in conjunction with Parkinson’s Disease, are accelerating.
But he still has a navy that has been quietly waiting, lurking around Scandinavia and the Baltics. It feels like a race now between the rising probability of a coup and the possibility that he lashes out, knowing he faces the end. He can dream of as many nuclear events as he likes, but he cannot execute any of them without help.
So, let’s hope that the Russian sign-off from 1981 was right. “See you later”. There will be a “later”. We can trust the good instincts of the Russian naval staff not to follow the orders of someone in the final stages of an angry madness. This kind of ecoterrorism right off of Russia’s borders would not serve Russia.
So, let’s toast Russia’s Northern Fleet with a whisky on the rocks in the hopes that they can keep us all safe. Cheers to that.
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🥃🥃🐟💨🤣🤣 Cheers, Pippa 👍👍👍
The amount of unprovoked military activity certainly seems to be rising rapidly and I sincerely hope you are right, @drpippa, that the Russian navy is stocked with Captain Ramius's not Capatain ahabs