What is the probability that both Putin and Xi get displaced and replaced? What is the probability that both, or either, Russia and China actually break up into smaller pieces as people fight against being locked up in virtual digital prisons, in the prison of involuntary conscription or in the home in lock-down, which has become the new prison? Autarkies are in anxiety for good reasons. Watch the Grannies.
Do you really believe that the US is less authoritarian than China or Russia? Between the political and election fraud as well as a non stop barrage of media propaganda we live in a similar totalitarian status. We may not have a scorecard yet but we all know that it is coming in one way or another.
Fantastic Pippa and a well-aimed kick in the teeth to the shambolic immigration policy of your mother country by quoting that Kipling-esque verse by Emma Lazarus. I wholly concur with your probable outcome. This collapse in trust is a natural consequence of the growing irrelevance of size for its own sake and it is a global phenomenon driven by technology. The logic of the nation state and the overlarge corporation along with the corruption that aggregated power centres always engender has been superceded. The next 50 years will see that play out with all its anarchic, messy and brutal consequences. Very well written.
Is it possible to build a ladder for Putin to climb down on by reimagining NATO as a world security organization (WSO) where Russia is part of the group. Putin could claim he solved Russia's security issues and slayed NATO. Joining the new NATO (WSO) would require Putin's regime to make huge changes to conform to member state status but Putin could still hold onto power. This process would expedite a return to good relations whether it be economic, political or social between Russia and the west. A global NATO could have positive effects on Chinese and Indian geo-politics. Ukraine should retain its 1991 borders, receive reparations and potentially provide additional autonomy to Russian minorities in Ukraine. I'm probably being naive... but just a thought. Thx
Grannies may be a potent force, but I have seen video of both German and Australian policemen brutalizing old women with no apparent consequences (other than negative publicity).
Both Putin and Xi have more thugs than either the German or Australian governments.
There is something strange with China and lockdowns. It would be interesting to see more of what you think about Iran. Most experts claim that the Iranian government is too strong and in control and a revolution will not happen. However, when I listen to Iranians in Iran or in Europe, they claim that this revolution will happen.
Sensibly you did not give a timeline here, but as well, I fear if you are correct about either nation, let alone both, the process will be extraordinarily messy and dangerous, not just for the citizens in those nations, but for the world as a whole. Ask yourself this, if these two nuclear powers break up, who takes control of those weapons? And whoever it may be, are they going to be level headed about the potential consequences of letting loose those dogs of war?
With that in mind, it has become increasingly clear that the Howe/Strauss concept of the 4th turning is upon us and much more upheaval is to come. I sincerely hope we are all around to see the other side
This promise is being broken in pretty much every Western country, not just Russia and China.
India is probably a better bet than any country. They are young and gold is widely held by institutions and by the general population.
The "young" in "old" countries, pretty much everywhere but the Global South, are likely to revolt. i.e. Your sons and your daughters are becoming beyond your command.
I think we are clearly entering into a major global period of unrest, both social and military. This 4th Turning is going to continue for many years and by the end of it I suspect the world will look totally different. A mixture of Brave New World and 1984 is now just as likely any new era of prosperity.
Grannies rule! That gives me pause when I think of the fact that Pelosi is a granny. So is Hillary. Maybe I'm not as confident about granny-power as I first assumed after reading this. Maybe I cannot trust anyone to push back against authoritarianism without the outcome being more authoritarian tendencies and new spins on corruption.
You’ve mentioned the social contract for China is a version of “you’ll continually be better off” and/or “you’ll get rich before you get old” but what do you think is the predominant underlying social contract within Russia?
I love your concept of social contract, and talk about it in terms of global events in conversations with my teenagers all of the time. It’s illuminative framing.
Maybe the bigger question is? Will 2023 be the year the USAs leader's feel these kinds of pressure. The hidden homelessness and under fed people is tremendous. Covid money still getting spent. The Kindness of food boxes ,churches etc. to provide food weekly. People just give,give,give (less wealthy are way more generous than wealthy) But 8 % inflation, home prices falling etc. The kindness is vanishing. Then Government will have a WTF moment and surely find someone to blame... But blame doesn't provide food or shelter
Do you really believe that the US is less authoritarian than China or Russia? Between the political and election fraud as well as a non stop barrage of media propaganda we live in a similar totalitarian status. We may not have a scorecard yet but we all know that it is coming in one way or another.
Fantastic Pippa and a well-aimed kick in the teeth to the shambolic immigration policy of your mother country by quoting that Kipling-esque verse by Emma Lazarus. I wholly concur with your probable outcome. This collapse in trust is a natural consequence of the growing irrelevance of size for its own sake and it is a global phenomenon driven by technology. The logic of the nation state and the overlarge corporation along with the corruption that aggregated power centres always engender has been superceded. The next 50 years will see that play out with all its anarchic, messy and brutal consequences. Very well written.
It is what comes after the current authoritarian system fails. Meet the new boss; worse than the old boss.
Is it possible to build a ladder for Putin to climb down on by reimagining NATO as a world security organization (WSO) where Russia is part of the group. Putin could claim he solved Russia's security issues and slayed NATO. Joining the new NATO (WSO) would require Putin's regime to make huge changes to conform to member state status but Putin could still hold onto power. This process would expedite a return to good relations whether it be economic, political or social between Russia and the west. A global NATO could have positive effects on Chinese and Indian geo-politics. Ukraine should retain its 1991 borders, receive reparations and potentially provide additional autonomy to Russian minorities in Ukraine. I'm probably being naive... but just a thought. Thx
I think you should add the UK to the list of countries where trust is lost.
Grannies may be a potent force, but I have seen video of both German and Australian policemen brutalizing old women with no apparent consequences (other than negative publicity).
Both Putin and Xi have more thugs than either the German or Australian governments.
There is something strange with China and lockdowns. It would be interesting to see more of what you think about Iran. Most experts claim that the Iranian government is too strong and in control and a revolution will not happen. However, when I listen to Iranians in Iran or in Europe, they claim that this revolution will happen.
Sensibly you did not give a timeline here, but as well, I fear if you are correct about either nation, let alone both, the process will be extraordinarily messy and dangerous, not just for the citizens in those nations, but for the world as a whole. Ask yourself this, if these two nuclear powers break up, who takes control of those weapons? And whoever it may be, are they going to be level headed about the potential consequences of letting loose those dogs of war?
With that in mind, it has become increasingly clear that the Howe/Strauss concept of the 4th turning is upon us and much more upheaval is to come. I sincerely hope we are all around to see the other side
Thanks Pippa
“we will make you rich before you get old”.
This promise is being broken in pretty much every Western country, not just Russia and China.
India is probably a better bet than any country. They are young and gold is widely held by institutions and by the general population.
The "young" in "old" countries, pretty much everywhere but the Global South, are likely to revolt. i.e. Your sons and your daughters are becoming beyond your command.
Definitely the fourth turning.
I think we are clearly entering into a major global period of unrest, both social and military. This 4th Turning is going to continue for many years and by the end of it I suspect the world will look totally different. A mixture of Brave New World and 1984 is now just as likely any new era of prosperity.
Grannies rule! That gives me pause when I think of the fact that Pelosi is a granny. So is Hillary. Maybe I'm not as confident about granny-power as I first assumed after reading this. Maybe I cannot trust anyone to push back against authoritarianism without the outcome being more authoritarian tendencies and new spins on corruption.
You’ve mentioned the social contract for China is a version of “you’ll continually be better off” and/or “you’ll get rich before you get old” but what do you think is the predominant underlying social contract within Russia?
I love your concept of social contract, and talk about it in terms of global events in conversations with my teenagers all of the time. It’s illuminative framing.
Maybe the bigger question is? Will 2023 be the year the USAs leader's feel these kinds of pressure. The hidden homelessness and under fed people is tremendous. Covid money still getting spent. The Kindness of food boxes ,churches etc. to provide food weekly. People just give,give,give (less wealthy are way more generous than wealthy) But 8 % inflation, home prices falling etc. The kindness is vanishing. Then Government will have a WTF moment and surely find someone to blame... But blame doesn't provide food or shelter