A few Christmas surprises to celebrate…
Omicron is a beautiful gift wrapped in sandpaper. The virus is doing exactly what viruses do at the end. The pandemic is transmuting into something that will be endemic. The r squared is going up. It’s much more contagious with an r squared of 2. But the virulence seems to be going down. The experience now seems to be more like a cold at home and less like an emergency room with a respirator. The epidemiologists seem to be confirming that Omicron is the mildest coronavirus so far. Snowflakes may still be nervous but this is something to celebrate.
Russians celebrate Christmas too and might not want to launch any actions in Ukraine at this time. If there is one group in Russia that has the ability to stare down President Putin, it’s Russian mothers. Even the most hardened Vory gangsters in Russia care what their mothers think. It was Russian mothers who demanded that Putin bring their sons home from Afghanistan. So, maybe mother knows best and we won’t witness the start of a military conflict over the coming holidays. That’s a gift.
A record amount of money is funding a record number of startups worldwide. It’s obvious that major corporations and governments are ill-equipped and not motivated to solve the most critical problems of our time. The heroes of tomorrow are the brave founders who are dreaming big and taking risks. Happily, they are being funded in record amounts. British startups have just had their best year ever. The funding went up by 2.3x to £29.4b and 29 unicorns sprang forth. In the US we saw record sums deployed in venture capital and less and less of it is coming from Silicon Valley. More and more is coming from diverse sources and going to diverse locations across America. Diversification will be a strength for the American start-up’s space. Note that the amount of capital devoted to Defi and crypto quadrupled in 2021 too. $30b arrived which is 4x the previous record of $8b in 2018. All that money and talent coming together will be a gift to us all.
Climate change lawsuits have doubled since 2015. These suits have forced nations and multinationals to change their ways. Companies like Shell are now reaching for zero-emissions but perhaps not fast enough. A Dutch court recently ordered Shell to cut emissions by 45% by 2030 (vs 1999 levels). The people have spoken and the courts have supported their efforts to force the fossil fuel suppliers to change their ways. That’s a gift to the planet.
The world’s stock markets look set to close 2021 at an all-time record high. Go ahead and worry about next year if you like but right now we are seeing what’s been dubbed “a Santa Clause Rally”. Here’s the MSCI for the year. Hey, the line is mainly going up. That’s a gift.
The new Webb Space Telescope launches tomorrow at 07:20am EST. Watch it here. It is the most ambitious space project humankind has ever undertaken. Here is the official mission trailer.
If you need some humour to finish the year, check out Fuc* Off 2020 Gin and it’s sister gins for 2021 and 2022 from Good George Brewing.
Or drink some champagne….
But, start planning for the gifts that 2022 will bring. Remember all the bad things that happened in 2020/2021? Haven’t they somehow they’ve turned into gifts? It’s always the way. The obstacle is the opportunity!
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I'm not sure mandated reductions in energy from traditional sources is a gift ... are you aware of what is going on in Europe right now? Nat gas at dangerously low levels. Magical thinking does not make intermittent power sources provide reliable energy, and without reliable energy the economy goes into the toilet
I am reminded of an old quote: "It's not your aptitude that determines your altitude. It's your attitude." (Original source unknown)