America is deeply in debt, divided. RU has EU by the energy strings. And Communist China has the SP500 piled into their economy chasing cost arb and end market growth. Commercial kompromat. What if they told Apple to go home?
My fear is America is itself deeply vulnerable, not militarily, but economically. And itself politically unstable. Has their been a better time and set-up for Putin, and China, to run their agendas?
There seems to be a lot of heat atm on who can access the Hellespont/Dardanelle Straits, and under what conditions. Longstanding agreements are at risk.
If the Straits matter escalates, then Constantinople/Istanbul comes into play. In which case with over 1,500 years of history, a religious element is added, drawing on deeply-held national identities. In other words, a wider conflagration could easily occur.
Not to mention the significant geopolitical motive (access to East Med, Suez, etc).
In which case we need a Circuit Breaker sooner rather than later....
A desperate man with access to a well-equipped nuclear arsenal is a very dangerous man. I believe the best cause of action now is to back down militarily and offer only humanitarian help. Why Putin is to be considered a desperate man…? Just open your window and take a peek outside. His own people will take him down sooner than later. Perhaps they will first wait and see if the new desperate Putin can gain anything at the expense of the West. Even if Putin managed to take more countries, e.g. the Baltic states, if the West stands down, how is Russia ever going to consolidate any such victory? How are they ever going to consolidate any gains in Ukraine long term? If the West backs down militarily now we can expose exactly how impotent Putin and his cronies really are.
Having lived in France and spoken to those who lived through the war and also having listened to the children whose parents lived through the war one of the most striking elements that they related was the spiritual strength it took to overcome Hitler. People who lived through the war and saw the next generation arise spoke about a weakening both spiritual and to a certain extent physical because the human resources expended during the war effort were immense. I think the West if it can delay this process long enough, in order to find its strength and realism, needs to return to its sources, the Greek, the Roman, and its Judeo-Christian heritage. I think the essential question of Western man is the one posed by Socrates: Who are you? Do you know yourself? The understanding of the person, in the deepest sense of the word, was in large part the underlying foundation of the West. The question is not first of all one of military or of economics, but of a research of truth.
Totally chilling. I pray to God your interpretation is incorrect. Please send out another letter telling us if there is anything the average American can do to help reduce the risk of a catastrophe.
KISS principle……invite an open and good faith dialogue with Russia….work a deal that can satisfy ALL sides security/trade needs. It CAN be done…..just needs that “unlimited imagination”….bring in parties outside the current Cold War mentality box.
Reading your sweeping and trenchant analysis, I'm reminded of the phrase 'characters are forged on the playing fields of Eton'.
In that tradition I'd like to introduce the concept of Worthy Competitors.
Competing to better the lot of mankind, rather than conquer territory.
Celebrate each nation's triumphs and successes and achievements, congratulate each other rather than demean and punish with a ruler on the knuckles.
Echoing what you mentioned, respect.
It's a multipolar world now defacto, and it's time in my view for the US to come to grips with that and dial down the arrogance in order to engage with peer competitors who have earned the right to respect in quite a few areas.
But even as I write this I realize testosterone will never allow that to happen.
China and Russia harbor much the same imperialist objectives as the US.
Only the 'lesser' nations still have the humility to live and let live.
And human beings have never invented a weapon system that was not ultimately used against an adversary.
Shocking how bad our leadership is....because just ONE WEEK prior to Putin entering Ukraine, there was a chance to go to the bargaining table in straight fashion. But at THAT time, our main stram TV News propaganda outlets decided to awe us lay viewers with how they had this "clever strategy of transparently and nakedly laying out all of PUtins thoughts and plans, garnered from signals intercepts" in service of deterrence, as the media anchors and our ruling elite collectively gave themselves high fives, as it were. ( Within a week, then they were pants down, as it were. If signals intelligence was so worthy, why are we here?)
Your excellent piece also lays clear what "Chernobyl" is....(and this CHILLS me to even conceive of)...it is a parked "dirty bomb" marked on google maps, waiting for Russian use. My GOD!!! And my 2 cents: religious leaders won't do anything at this stage. If you watch PUtin's one hour speech on Feb 21 (Cspan), (I could only watch 20 minutes) he is laying out clear solid geopolitical rationale. Sprinkling "holy water" is too late.
Your articles are tremendously stimulating and informative. Thank you.
Great article. I don't believe for a second Putin plans to stop until he gets what he wants. My only doubts are around China as I don't believe they will support Putin militarily. They will support him in all other ways but military assistance is I think a step too far for China as they have lots to lose and I don't think Xi is that aggressive like Putin.
Hubbert Linearization indicates that Russia crude oil & condensate production rate has either peaked & is currently declining, or is peaking now. The rate of decline is still uncertain, but there is a possibly that the decline could be severe. Despite having large gas resources in the Arctic, all of the easy gas is gone and maintaining production at current levels could be very difficult and expensive, significantly more expensive than producing its Soviet-era giant fields. In 1-2 decades, Russia will NOT generate sufficient wealth to finance its military and defend its borders. Russia is on the verge of a financial crisis, despite having $600 billion in reserves. The Ukraine war is about grabbing resources while Russia still can. Russia is at peak power now. If it doesn't move now, it has no future. Once Russia's oil and gas production problems become obvious, the sharks will taste blood and start circling.
Nothing will stop Putin. The key moment will come when he moves on the Baltic’s because then we will see whether NATO is a paper tiger or not. It is a time similar to pre WWI when the great powers of the time had alliances that they upheld bringing them into WWI, which in fact was just the first stage of a global war seeking to change power relationships.
We have to remember that Russia is a third rate power who has a ton of nukes, which inherently makes them more dangerous. But the world does not have any medium or long term shortage of fossil fuels. Russia’s mineral supplies are vast but not essential.
Putin has been on a long term crusade to restore Russian greatness ever since the Soviet Union fell apart in the 1990’s. We have to remind ourselves how much paranoia and revenge drive what he does. He certainly has set up honey traps - in Germany making them dependent on Russian oil and in the US, by increasing divisiveness and undermining it’s democracy by interfering in our elections and clearing controlling Trump. Stepping back from this for the US will be difficult but not impossible. The West has been disingenuous for years - ignoring the long term goals of world domination by both China and Russia.
I still think the analogies w/WWI are appropriate in that that war co-incided w/the demise of globalization (one world) and the shattering of confidence in institutions.
Perhaps Putin is sick, but we seem to know nothing about who has power w/in Kremlin. The plutocrats do owe their wealth to him, but are they willing to sacrifice their wealth to rebuild the Russia empire. They likely are much more transactional and self focused.
In a world where corruption is rife everywhere, it is really very difficult to see how the future is going to be anything but alarming to most in the world.
America is deeply in debt, divided. RU has EU by the energy strings. And Communist China has the SP500 piled into their economy chasing cost arb and end market growth. Commercial kompromat. What if they told Apple to go home?
My fear is America is itself deeply vulnerable, not militarily, but economically. And itself politically unstable. Has their been a better time and set-up for Putin, and China, to run their agendas?
Clever pen. Enjoy this piece.
A great read Pippa, love your work.
There seems to be a lot of heat atm on who can access the Hellespont/Dardanelle Straits, and under what conditions. Longstanding agreements are at risk.
If the Straits matter escalates, then Constantinople/Istanbul comes into play. In which case with over 1,500 years of history, a religious element is added, drawing on deeply-held national identities. In other words, a wider conflagration could easily occur.
Not to mention the significant geopolitical motive (access to East Med, Suez, etc).
In which case we need a Circuit Breaker sooner rather than later....
Maybe lets get the viewpoint of some experts on the subject
https://usrussiaaccord.org/acura-viewpoint-jack-f-matlock-jr-todays-crisis-over-ukraine/
Putin needs to realize the Cold War is over and the Soviet Union is a long dead memory.
He is now to face a reinvigorated and reinforced Nato all around Russia.
The west has had it with their own authoritarian governments. The calls for freedom are soaring everywhere.
A desperate man with access to a well-equipped nuclear arsenal is a very dangerous man. I believe the best cause of action now is to back down militarily and offer only humanitarian help. Why Putin is to be considered a desperate man…? Just open your window and take a peek outside. His own people will take him down sooner than later. Perhaps they will first wait and see if the new desperate Putin can gain anything at the expense of the West. Even if Putin managed to take more countries, e.g. the Baltic states, if the West stands down, how is Russia ever going to consolidate any such victory? How are they ever going to consolidate any gains in Ukraine long term? If the West backs down militarily now we can expose exactly how impotent Putin and his cronies really are.
Having lived in France and spoken to those who lived through the war and also having listened to the children whose parents lived through the war one of the most striking elements that they related was the spiritual strength it took to overcome Hitler. People who lived through the war and saw the next generation arise spoke about a weakening both spiritual and to a certain extent physical because the human resources expended during the war effort were immense. I think the West if it can delay this process long enough, in order to find its strength and realism, needs to return to its sources, the Greek, the Roman, and its Judeo-Christian heritage. I think the essential question of Western man is the one posed by Socrates: Who are you? Do you know yourself? The understanding of the person, in the deepest sense of the word, was in large part the underlying foundation of the West. The question is not first of all one of military or of economics, but of a research of truth.
Totally chilling. I pray to God your interpretation is incorrect. Please send out another letter telling us if there is anything the average American can do to help reduce the risk of a catastrophe.
great perspective
KISS principle……invite an open and good faith dialogue with Russia….work a deal that can satisfy ALL sides security/trade needs. It CAN be done…..just needs that “unlimited imagination”….bring in parties outside the current Cold War mentality box.
Reading your sweeping and trenchant analysis, I'm reminded of the phrase 'characters are forged on the playing fields of Eton'.
In that tradition I'd like to introduce the concept of Worthy Competitors.
Competing to better the lot of mankind, rather than conquer territory.
Celebrate each nation's triumphs and successes and achievements, congratulate each other rather than demean and punish with a ruler on the knuckles.
Echoing what you mentioned, respect.
It's a multipolar world now defacto, and it's time in my view for the US to come to grips with that and dial down the arrogance in order to engage with peer competitors who have earned the right to respect in quite a few areas.
But even as I write this I realize testosterone will never allow that to happen.
China and Russia harbor much the same imperialist objectives as the US.
Only the 'lesser' nations still have the humility to live and let live.
And human beings have never invented a weapon system that was not ultimately used against an adversary.
A posted analysis of Russia Oil production on my substack site this evening:
https://gregbartholomew.substack.com/p/russia-oil-production?r=16oyyj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Shocking how bad our leadership is....because just ONE WEEK prior to Putin entering Ukraine, there was a chance to go to the bargaining table in straight fashion. But at THAT time, our main stram TV News propaganda outlets decided to awe us lay viewers with how they had this "clever strategy of transparently and nakedly laying out all of PUtins thoughts and plans, garnered from signals intercepts" in service of deterrence, as the media anchors and our ruling elite collectively gave themselves high fives, as it were. ( Within a week, then they were pants down, as it were. If signals intelligence was so worthy, why are we here?)
Your excellent piece also lays clear what "Chernobyl" is....(and this CHILLS me to even conceive of)...it is a parked "dirty bomb" marked on google maps, waiting for Russian use. My GOD!!! And my 2 cents: religious leaders won't do anything at this stage. If you watch PUtin's one hour speech on Feb 21 (Cspan), (I could only watch 20 minutes) he is laying out clear solid geopolitical rationale. Sprinkling "holy water" is too late.
Your articles are tremendously stimulating and informative. Thank you.
Great article. I don't believe for a second Putin plans to stop until he gets what he wants. My only doubts are around China as I don't believe they will support Putin militarily. They will support him in all other ways but military assistance is I think a step too far for China as they have lots to lose and I don't think Xi is that aggressive like Putin.
Hubbert Linearization indicates that Russia crude oil & condensate production rate has either peaked & is currently declining, or is peaking now. The rate of decline is still uncertain, but there is a possibly that the decline could be severe. Despite having large gas resources in the Arctic, all of the easy gas is gone and maintaining production at current levels could be very difficult and expensive, significantly more expensive than producing its Soviet-era giant fields. In 1-2 decades, Russia will NOT generate sufficient wealth to finance its military and defend its borders. Russia is on the verge of a financial crisis, despite having $600 billion in reserves. The Ukraine war is about grabbing resources while Russia still can. Russia is at peak power now. If it doesn't move now, it has no future. Once Russia's oil and gas production problems become obvious, the sharks will taste blood and start circling.
Nothing will stop Putin. The key moment will come when he moves on the Baltic’s because then we will see whether NATO is a paper tiger or not. It is a time similar to pre WWI when the great powers of the time had alliances that they upheld bringing them into WWI, which in fact was just the first stage of a global war seeking to change power relationships.
We have to remember that Russia is a third rate power who has a ton of nukes, which inherently makes them more dangerous. But the world does not have any medium or long term shortage of fossil fuels. Russia’s mineral supplies are vast but not essential.
Putin has been on a long term crusade to restore Russian greatness ever since the Soviet Union fell apart in the 1990’s. We have to remind ourselves how much paranoia and revenge drive what he does. He certainly has set up honey traps - in Germany making them dependent on Russian oil and in the US, by increasing divisiveness and undermining it’s democracy by interfering in our elections and clearing controlling Trump. Stepping back from this for the US will be difficult but not impossible. The West has been disingenuous for years - ignoring the long term goals of world domination by both China and Russia.
I still think the analogies w/WWI are appropriate in that that war co-incided w/the demise of globalization (one world) and the shattering of confidence in institutions.
Perhaps Putin is sick, but we seem to know nothing about who has power w/in Kremlin. The plutocrats do owe their wealth to him, but are they willing to sacrifice their wealth to rebuild the Russia empire. They likely are much more transactional and self focused.
In a world where corruption is rife everywhere, it is really very difficult to see how the future is going to be anything but alarming to most in the world.
KBHAAZLAKRIINAS