If tiny little Ukraine can take on a nuclear superpower and win, maybe others can take on their rulers too. Let’s call this “The Ukraine Effect”. What follows? Nuclear threats. Everybody loses their nerve. Then Bear Hugs. China hugs Russia so tightly it becomes China. The next President and Russian leader will eventually hug too. It's short-term ugly and long-term & may be good enough to bet on.
As usual, a provocative look by Pippa at the current situation. I think I generally agree with the first 3/4 of the article. I do not agree that a better world is coming with the superpower decentralization. I think chaos is coming with 'strongmen" appearing everywhere.
I also think the coming dramatic deterioration in Western economic circumstances is going to lead to reactionary governments and massive civil disturbances. The financial system is clearly close to breaking point yet again and this time the debt situation is MUCH worse than in 2008. The strong dollar is causing chaos in the currency markets and it doesn't look like it is even close to being over as of this week. Stock markets most likely have another lunge lower to come before bottoming. The Cus social safety nets are already close to breaking points and the coming steep recession will entail mass "QE" to save the day.
So I fully agree that as Pippa quoted the line that "There are decades where nothing happens...." etc etc. But I see nothing but chaos going forward. Yes there will be brief respites, but the "people" are getting antsy EVERYWHERE. Pitchforks are being sharpened, torches are being dipped in kerosene and the public is polarizing dramatically. A better future is not on the cards for any year this decade and probably the next. Once again to quote Tomlin...... "Its going to get a lot worse before it gets worse".
It wasn't smart of US to push Russia (resources) toward alignment with China (resource demand) since 2014. The opposite would have been brilliant.
The US $ (reserve currency and trade invoicing) is the only main advantage US has ever had. Not a single country at this point is going to put up with this nonsense...
Regarding Vadim Zimin, the cited source as well everything else a very quick search yielded, show that he is not dead (yet, in a coma) and does not mention anything about the location of the wounds in the head (front, back, side, etc). Was what you mentioned in the text (dead, back of the head) just writer’s freedom or do you have some sources?
While there does seem to be substantive evidence that conscription in Russia is not going smoothly, do you think for one moment that it would in America? ( and other Western countries) ...the whole notion of patriotism is riddled with problems these days....from political polarization internally, a youth culture unsuited to militarism ( US army just fell 25% short of its recruitment goals). Not many believe there is any worth or valor in sacrificing life and family and joie de vivre to defend a non-homogeneous piece of dirt that you just happened to have been born on! The underlying ethos is becoming one of globalized “tribes/communities held together by common interests and the developing Web3/metaverse . Will the Nation States wither away gracefully, or will the world be wracked with violent convulsions as the old Orders try to maintain control.....that to me is the big unknown, and the great concern I have for the young generations.
I CAN believe you would say such things. You have had years and years of State Department influence/corruption to think much differently. I will admit that this is possible, but a very long shot, let's say a "non-negative probability". That said, here's the mistake you make now with this thesis that reminds us we made just a few short years ago:
"Let’s put this bluntly. We are witnessing the end of the Soviet Union. We thought it ended the day after Christmas in 1991 as a result of President Gorbachev’s Christmas Day speech. It now seems clear that we in the West were extraordinarily naïve. We thought that the demise of the Soviet Union as a body politic meant that Russia and its constituents would simply adopt democracy and capitalism and join the family of nations. Instead, Russia, having no experience of democracy or capitalism, fell under the control of savvy operators particularly from the world of intelligence (Siloviki), organized crime (The Vory), and those we now call oligarchs. The fragile and inept old structure was simply taken over rather than reformed or modernized."
So, talk to me about the experience of democracy or capitalism that all of the Stans, and Russia, and China have TODAY. Answer, no more than they had in 1991. Don't put too much faith in a handful of women in Iran uncovering their heads and rushing the cops. When they get home, their own husbands will rape and beat them and brand them as whores who have insulted Allah. You think this is Gloria Steinem and 1969 and these Iranian women will next burn their bras and declare a women's rights movement? Dope is not powerful enough to have me hallucinate these images.
I feel no comfort in your agreement with Bill Ackman and the belief that all of America's problems are solved by immigration. These thoughts are just plain silly. This is not the immigration of the early 20th century european hard-working, independent, craftsmen/entrepreneurial type. The present century brings us the generations of peasants and criminals escaping hell-hole countries expecting to have a minimal level of subsistence, and NEVER wanting to assimilate, but remain in their own "enclaves", and maintain their own "cultures". Sure, some will become productive, but they are the tiny minority. It will be the reverse of the early 20th century when the vast majority became self-sufficient, ENGLISH speaking, AMERICANS, and a small minority ended up in crime families or in prison, or living generation after generation on the dole.
Sorry Pippa and Bill, this just sounds to me that you both are expecting more groundskeepers for your personal castles.
So here's where I do agree. The wave of "nationalism" IS sweeping the globe. The proles are beginning to see the folly of the "one big happy global family" where some dynasty of "enlightened leaders" make all of the decisions. This will lead to social UNREST everywhere.
"Allies" of the US are beginning to question the helpfulness of the US when times get shitty.
But DUH!
WHO (watching the current US political situation) feels any comfort at all with ANYTHING about the US??
Come on Pippa, just come out and say it, "WE HAVE THE DUMBEST, MOST DANGEROUS, MOST OBVIOUSLY SENILE executive branch of government ever in the history of any living human's memory. We have THE MOST CORRUPT, SELF-SERVING, DO-NOTHING, INBRED, legislative branch of government ever since the days of the Civil War. The ONLY thing our "allies" count on is our purse, and they probably realize that the US proles are getting sick of seeing THEIR money being flown to our "allies" and that gravy train may not be as generous moving forward. So yes Pippa, nations are again getting their "nationality" together, but not in a Kumbaya type of way. Sorry, but dreaming of winning the Power Ball does NOT buy you that island in the Caribbean, so save the happy talk of more economic growth and even the prospects of deflation. Better "connectivity" and "technologies" won't be a substitute for productivity, and despite your love of the US Department of State, the world is not striving to be that shining beacon on the hill of democracy, harmony, and justice for all.
I still believe man was created by God in his image, but still has freewill, and a propensity to sit on the top of the heap, even if it means climbing on the backs of others to get to the top. Just sayin'.......
Interesting observations on the Scandinavian nations. I know that China and Japan have positioned themselves as Observer Nations for Arctic Circle Shipping. The CCP was heavily invested in French container line CMA CGM, and last I heard looking for anyone to help back Chinese interests in opening container shipping routes using the North East Passage and the Northern Sea Route, as Arctic ice had been thinning in previous years (until recently). The idea was to open a Mega Feeder terminal on the North Coast of Iceland, and develop a class of Arctic Max Mega Container ships.
If the Chinese are interested in a commercial empire, then so be it. The Neo-Phoenecean World Order?
It seems America has lost interest in such. Additionally, America has completely ignored its Icebreaker fleet, including its SAR obligations and ability to defend the Alaskan shelf, for decades at this point, refusing to commit to decent nuclear powered vessels required to maintained a dedicated presence in the North. Underinvestment in only one ship (two others currently inoperable/used for parts) creates a design limitation for its cooling systems, as the US needs to use a single ship to visit its Antarctic waters as well as Arctic, meaning it has to pass via Hawaii/tropical temperatures as well, during transit. Enfuriatingly short sighted and poorly funded for the owner of the largest Naval fleet the world has ever seen.
The Danes and Finns by contrast are world leaders in Arctic ship design, and are the only ships granted an exemption from the 'million dollars per transit' fee, for Icebreaker escort through Russian waters, due to their superior design. When you look at the map from a polar projection, the geopolitics look very different. Great read, Pippa, thank you.
Pippa --- your observations cover the use of power in a number of ways. I especially relate to the emerging power of women --- from the women in Iran to the Mothers who are standing for peace instead of war, in different ways. Typically women and mothers use power in a different manner than one of domination or usury. It's not an indication of weakness, but of underlying caring, and strength.
As always awesome article and a space to have a dialog. Following the works of Pipa and her father gives us un parallel insight into how the US gov works. But recently its been quite speculative.
(1) Russia is not going to disintegrate - Putin enjoys 77% public support. Ask Doug MacGregor, a respectable US General no ?
(2) When a Palestinian Journalist dies at the hands of Israeli brutality, the media has 0 reaction. Hardly any mention in this space, bias no ?
(3) Eastern Ukraine is/has been populated by Ethnic Russians since 1790 no ?. Then why get surprised that the referendum will reflect joining Russia.
(4) For a democracy US/Biden admin says a Referendum is Undemocratic. Why US is surprised the global south call US call for human rights/democracy bs ?
(5) 1991 US ally Saudi colluted in dropping oil price to expose weakness in USSR economy. Today Putin sights with Saudi and Rising oil prices to hurt US economy. Fair game no ?
(6) US blows up Nordstrom pipelines after secret talks between Germany and Russia to resume gas sales. Is US really ally of Germany. Looks like Russia more friendly to Europe than US.
(7) All shouting about Russia loosing, economy collapsing etc etc.. Putin made Ruble Gas Ruble like Petro dollar with Saudi deals by Kissinger in 1970. So economy is stronger. No
(8) All this hate Russia love Ukraine is nothing more than Great power competition no ? So why send 100,000 Ukraine young men to die fighting Russia. US/West is civilized Really ?
Global south is not fooled by all this news. All these US generals on CNN their credibility down the drain.
Above all US should call for peace and negotiations if it expects the global south to support it. Today's US deep state is more like Hitler's Germany.. Start wars. Blame others, Destroy nations and thinks that it rains supreme. Sad. and uncivilized. Not even Saudi's respect US anymore..
Ignorant Biden admin. Thinks that $US and dollar is and always will be the center of global trade. This was true when US was 50% global economy after WW2.
Its a great time to put people of color in office when the economy is collapsing, social unrest etc. Someone like Trump or even worse will take he Office and will institute even more discriminations towards the minorities..
East Rising, West falling down from global domination stage. In desperation, West is starting wars and committing chaos.. And calls it self democracy and human rights supporter.. Just ask Prof John Mershimer.
Aside from the demographic implosion of RUS and the PRC, as well as all of Western Europe, and the USA more slowly, the problem remains that onshoring of supply chains will tremendously lessen economic growth. At least that’s what I’ve read from everyone else I read (and agree with). Old school Japanese style just in time supply chains are so 1980, as are the organizations and the duopoly of the US and USSR as the only great powers. Now, not so much. We’re in for interesting times, as they say....
Dr. Pippa - An outstanding evaluation of one of the possible outcomes of current political situations around our globe. Hope I am still around when the dust settles. Time for us to recoup our own freedoms.
Very interesting thoughts. Unambiguously the entry of China into the global economy led to deflation, but I wonder if Xi is more concerned with consolidating his own power internally at this time. That would explain zero covid, because nothing controls a population better than locking them up in their homes. It also fits with the digital currency control and the social scores and everything else. Never having been in any kind of power, I don't really know what it is like, but my observation is that once someone reaches a pinnacle of power, their willingness to give it up is essentially zero, and they spend the bulk of their time figuring out how to maintain it forever, then maybe pass it to their children.
You ascribe a great deal of strategy to Xi which may easily be circumstantial because of Putin's glaring strategic error, not because he gamed out the way things would play out.
It seems a corollary to Hanlon's razor might be; never ascribe to strategy that which can be explained by unexpected events and other's mistakes.
Regardless, as always, a thought provoking discussion
Another amazing read Dr. Pippa! I can't remember seeing geopolitical events at such a high pitch boil in my life. Thanks for contributing and sharing your insight!
As usual, a provocative look by Pippa at the current situation. I think I generally agree with the first 3/4 of the article. I do not agree that a better world is coming with the superpower decentralization. I think chaos is coming with 'strongmen" appearing everywhere.
I also think the coming dramatic deterioration in Western economic circumstances is going to lead to reactionary governments and massive civil disturbances. The financial system is clearly close to breaking point yet again and this time the debt situation is MUCH worse than in 2008. The strong dollar is causing chaos in the currency markets and it doesn't look like it is even close to being over as of this week. Stock markets most likely have another lunge lower to come before bottoming. The Cus social safety nets are already close to breaking points and the coming steep recession will entail mass "QE" to save the day.
So I fully agree that as Pippa quoted the line that "There are decades where nothing happens...." etc etc. But I see nothing but chaos going forward. Yes there will be brief respites, but the "people" are getting antsy EVERYWHERE. Pitchforks are being sharpened, torches are being dipped in kerosene and the public is polarizing dramatically. A better future is not on the cards for any year this decade and probably the next. Once again to quote Tomlin...... "Its going to get a lot worse before it gets worse".
It wasn't smart of US to push Russia (resources) toward alignment with China (resource demand) since 2014. The opposite would have been brilliant.
The US $ (reserve currency and trade invoicing) is the only main advantage US has ever had. Not a single country at this point is going to put up with this nonsense...
Financial Times (2019) "Mark Carney BOE calls for global monetary system to replace the dollar". https://www.ft.com/content/a775b55a-c5c2-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9
the rest of your narrative is just that - stories and propaganda.
with love, from a Ukrainian American citizen.
Regarding Vadim Zimin, the cited source as well everything else a very quick search yielded, show that he is not dead (yet, in a coma) and does not mention anything about the location of the wounds in the head (front, back, side, etc). Was what you mentioned in the text (dead, back of the head) just writer’s freedom or do you have some sources?
Dr Pippa you are every think in need to give me the 30,000ft view of this crazy world we now live in!!!
Thanks
While there does seem to be substantive evidence that conscription in Russia is not going smoothly, do you think for one moment that it would in America? ( and other Western countries) ...the whole notion of patriotism is riddled with problems these days....from political polarization internally, a youth culture unsuited to militarism ( US army just fell 25% short of its recruitment goals). Not many believe there is any worth or valor in sacrificing life and family and joie de vivre to defend a non-homogeneous piece of dirt that you just happened to have been born on! The underlying ethos is becoming one of globalized “tribes/communities held together by common interests and the developing Web3/metaverse . Will the Nation States wither away gracefully, or will the world be wracked with violent convulsions as the old Orders try to maintain control.....that to me is the big unknown, and the great concern I have for the young generations.
Pippa,
I CAN believe you would say such things. You have had years and years of State Department influence/corruption to think much differently. I will admit that this is possible, but a very long shot, let's say a "non-negative probability". That said, here's the mistake you make now with this thesis that reminds us we made just a few short years ago:
"Let’s put this bluntly. We are witnessing the end of the Soviet Union. We thought it ended the day after Christmas in 1991 as a result of President Gorbachev’s Christmas Day speech. It now seems clear that we in the West were extraordinarily naïve. We thought that the demise of the Soviet Union as a body politic meant that Russia and its constituents would simply adopt democracy and capitalism and join the family of nations. Instead, Russia, having no experience of democracy or capitalism, fell under the control of savvy operators particularly from the world of intelligence (Siloviki), organized crime (The Vory), and those we now call oligarchs. The fragile and inept old structure was simply taken over rather than reformed or modernized."
So, talk to me about the experience of democracy or capitalism that all of the Stans, and Russia, and China have TODAY. Answer, no more than they had in 1991. Don't put too much faith in a handful of women in Iran uncovering their heads and rushing the cops. When they get home, their own husbands will rape and beat them and brand them as whores who have insulted Allah. You think this is Gloria Steinem and 1969 and these Iranian women will next burn their bras and declare a women's rights movement? Dope is not powerful enough to have me hallucinate these images.
I feel no comfort in your agreement with Bill Ackman and the belief that all of America's problems are solved by immigration. These thoughts are just plain silly. This is not the immigration of the early 20th century european hard-working, independent, craftsmen/entrepreneurial type. The present century brings us the generations of peasants and criminals escaping hell-hole countries expecting to have a minimal level of subsistence, and NEVER wanting to assimilate, but remain in their own "enclaves", and maintain their own "cultures". Sure, some will become productive, but they are the tiny minority. It will be the reverse of the early 20th century when the vast majority became self-sufficient, ENGLISH speaking, AMERICANS, and a small minority ended up in crime families or in prison, or living generation after generation on the dole.
Sorry Pippa and Bill, this just sounds to me that you both are expecting more groundskeepers for your personal castles.
So here's where I do agree. The wave of "nationalism" IS sweeping the globe. The proles are beginning to see the folly of the "one big happy global family" where some dynasty of "enlightened leaders" make all of the decisions. This will lead to social UNREST everywhere.
"Allies" of the US are beginning to question the helpfulness of the US when times get shitty.
But DUH!
WHO (watching the current US political situation) feels any comfort at all with ANYTHING about the US??
Come on Pippa, just come out and say it, "WE HAVE THE DUMBEST, MOST DANGEROUS, MOST OBVIOUSLY SENILE executive branch of government ever in the history of any living human's memory. We have THE MOST CORRUPT, SELF-SERVING, DO-NOTHING, INBRED, legislative branch of government ever since the days of the Civil War. The ONLY thing our "allies" count on is our purse, and they probably realize that the US proles are getting sick of seeing THEIR money being flown to our "allies" and that gravy train may not be as generous moving forward. So yes Pippa, nations are again getting their "nationality" together, but not in a Kumbaya type of way. Sorry, but dreaming of winning the Power Ball does NOT buy you that island in the Caribbean, so save the happy talk of more economic growth and even the prospects of deflation. Better "connectivity" and "technologies" won't be a substitute for productivity, and despite your love of the US Department of State, the world is not striving to be that shining beacon on the hill of democracy, harmony, and justice for all.
I still believe man was created by God in his image, but still has freewill, and a propensity to sit on the top of the heap, even if it means climbing on the backs of others to get to the top. Just sayin'.......
Interesting observations on the Scandinavian nations. I know that China and Japan have positioned themselves as Observer Nations for Arctic Circle Shipping. The CCP was heavily invested in French container line CMA CGM, and last I heard looking for anyone to help back Chinese interests in opening container shipping routes using the North East Passage and the Northern Sea Route, as Arctic ice had been thinning in previous years (until recently). The idea was to open a Mega Feeder terminal on the North Coast of Iceland, and develop a class of Arctic Max Mega Container ships.
If the Chinese are interested in a commercial empire, then so be it. The Neo-Phoenecean World Order?
It seems America has lost interest in such. Additionally, America has completely ignored its Icebreaker fleet, including its SAR obligations and ability to defend the Alaskan shelf, for decades at this point, refusing to commit to decent nuclear powered vessels required to maintained a dedicated presence in the North. Underinvestment in only one ship (two others currently inoperable/used for parts) creates a design limitation for its cooling systems, as the US needs to use a single ship to visit its Antarctic waters as well as Arctic, meaning it has to pass via Hawaii/tropical temperatures as well, during transit. Enfuriatingly short sighted and poorly funded for the owner of the largest Naval fleet the world has ever seen.
The Danes and Finns by contrast are world leaders in Arctic ship design, and are the only ships granted an exemption from the 'million dollars per transit' fee, for Icebreaker escort through Russian waters, due to their superior design. When you look at the map from a polar projection, the geopolitics look very different. Great read, Pippa, thank you.
Pippa --- your observations cover the use of power in a number of ways. I especially relate to the emerging power of women --- from the women in Iran to the Mothers who are standing for peace instead of war, in different ways. Typically women and mothers use power in a different manner than one of domination or usury. It's not an indication of weakness, but of underlying caring, and strength.
As always awesome article and a space to have a dialog. Following the works of Pipa and her father gives us un parallel insight into how the US gov works. But recently its been quite speculative.
(1) Russia is not going to disintegrate - Putin enjoys 77% public support. Ask Doug MacGregor, a respectable US General no ?
(2) When a Palestinian Journalist dies at the hands of Israeli brutality, the media has 0 reaction. Hardly any mention in this space, bias no ?
(3) Eastern Ukraine is/has been populated by Ethnic Russians since 1790 no ?. Then why get surprised that the referendum will reflect joining Russia.
(4) For a democracy US/Biden admin says a Referendum is Undemocratic. Why US is surprised the global south call US call for human rights/democracy bs ?
(5) 1991 US ally Saudi colluted in dropping oil price to expose weakness in USSR economy. Today Putin sights with Saudi and Rising oil prices to hurt US economy. Fair game no ?
(6) US blows up Nordstrom pipelines after secret talks between Germany and Russia to resume gas sales. Is US really ally of Germany. Looks like Russia more friendly to Europe than US.
(7) All shouting about Russia loosing, economy collapsing etc etc.. Putin made Ruble Gas Ruble like Petro dollar with Saudi deals by Kissinger in 1970. So economy is stronger. No
(8) All this hate Russia love Ukraine is nothing more than Great power competition no ? So why send 100,000 Ukraine young men to die fighting Russia. US/West is civilized Really ?
Global south is not fooled by all this news. All these US generals on CNN their credibility down the drain.
Above all US should call for peace and negotiations if it expects the global south to support it. Today's US deep state is more like Hitler's Germany.. Start wars. Blame others, Destroy nations and thinks that it rains supreme. Sad. and uncivilized. Not even Saudi's respect US anymore..
Ignorant Biden admin. Thinks that $US and dollar is and always will be the center of global trade. This was true when US was 50% global economy after WW2.
Its a great time to put people of color in office when the economy is collapsing, social unrest etc. Someone like Trump or even worse will take he Office and will institute even more discriminations towards the minorities..
East Rising, West falling down from global domination stage. In desperation, West is starting wars and committing chaos.. And calls it self democracy and human rights supporter.. Just ask Prof John Mershimer.
Aside from the demographic implosion of RUS and the PRC, as well as all of Western Europe, and the USA more slowly, the problem remains that onshoring of supply chains will tremendously lessen economic growth. At least that’s what I’ve read from everyone else I read (and agree with). Old school Japanese style just in time supply chains are so 1980, as are the organizations and the duopoly of the US and USSR as the only great powers. Now, not so much. We’re in for interesting times, as they say....
Dr. Pippa - An outstanding evaluation of one of the possible outcomes of current political situations around our globe. Hope I am still around when the dust settles. Time for us to recoup our own freedoms.
Very interesting thoughts. Unambiguously the entry of China into the global economy led to deflation, but I wonder if Xi is more concerned with consolidating his own power internally at this time. That would explain zero covid, because nothing controls a population better than locking them up in their homes. It also fits with the digital currency control and the social scores and everything else. Never having been in any kind of power, I don't really know what it is like, but my observation is that once someone reaches a pinnacle of power, their willingness to give it up is essentially zero, and they spend the bulk of their time figuring out how to maintain it forever, then maybe pass it to their children.
You ascribe a great deal of strategy to Xi which may easily be circumstantial because of Putin's glaring strategic error, not because he gamed out the way things would play out.
It seems a corollary to Hanlon's razor might be; never ascribe to strategy that which can be explained by unexpected events and other's mistakes.
Regardless, as always, a thought provoking discussion
thanks
Another amazing read Dr. Pippa! I can't remember seeing geopolitical events at such a high pitch boil in my life. Thanks for contributing and sharing your insight!